202
FXUS63 KLBF 070801
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
201 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
TODAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO TEXAS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY ADVANCING A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM
65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND LOW HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15
PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING.
UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
MONDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL BE FROM 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NBM 50TH PERCENTILE IS ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER BOTH DAYS. THIS
INDICATES THAT EVEN WARMER HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE
GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE 74, 70, 69, AND 72 AT NORTH PLATTE, VALENTINE,
BROKEN BOW, AND IMPERIAL RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
SOME IF NOT ALL OF THESE RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN ON MONDAY AS THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO RISE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S SUNDAY,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO RANGE AS
LOW AS 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOWN TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING A CLOUDY SKY AND MUCH COOLER HIGHS ON TUESDAY
RANGING FROM 44 TO 50 DEGREES. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH THESE HIGHS MAY STILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WHILE UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE MORE ACTIVE FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS MUCH
NEEDED, THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH, AND THAT MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLWS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN FROM 09Z-14Z AT THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD SOUTHEAST AT BELOW 10KTS,
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST 14Z, WITH GUST TO 18KTS AT KVTN. WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY BY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
KVTN. WIND BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST AT BELOW 10KTS BY 00Z/8TH.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ204-210.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
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