397
FXUS63 KLBF 072350
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
550 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM, POTENTIALLY RECORD-
BREAKING, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
AND NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 10 TO 16 C RANGE THROUGH
MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGHS TO EASILY RISE INTO THE
60S. A SLIGHTLY WARMER SURGE OF WARMER AIR ON MONDAY COULD EVEN
RAISE HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. CURRENT RECORD HIGHS SIT AT 74,
70, 69, AND 72 AT NORTH PLATTE, VALENTINE, BROKEN BOW, AND IMPERIAL
RESPECTIVELY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST PROBABILITIES THERE IS A NEARLY
90 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT AREAS SOUTH OF A OGALLALA TO NORTH
PLATTE TO BROKEN BOW LINE WILL RISE TO 70 DEGREES OR HIGHER. LOOKING
AT THE PROBABILITY OF HITTING 75 DEGREES OR HIGHER THESE SAME
LOCATIONS HAVE NEARLY A 50 PERCENT CHANCE. BASED ON THIS, WOULDN'T
BE SURPRISED TO SEE FORECASTED HIGHS ON MONDAY RISE A FEW MORE
DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IF THIS HAPPENS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT SOME IF NOT ALL OF THESE RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN ON
MONDAY AS THE LATEST MODEL TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO RISE
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS WELL THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
KEEPING THE REGION IN ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL. NEAR-CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY DUE TO LOW RH DOWN TO NEAR
15 PERCENT. OVERALL WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN UNDER
25 MPH, BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE ARE
EXPECTED. SIMILAR TO TODAY (SATURDAY), THE GREATEST CONCERNS WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTO THE PANHANDLE. BEYOND THIS
AFTERNOON, HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME, BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS ON TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACTS NEBRASKA. NEAR
DAILY RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WHILE NONE OF THE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE BIG PRECIPITATION
MAKERS, EACH ONE DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AT LEAST A LITTLE
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
DAY AND BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT, PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY EXPECTING SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS WITH RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS. AT THIS TIME, ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT WITH
THE OVERALL LIGHT COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION, WOULDN'T EXPECT TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS, THOUGH, SO WON'T
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON IT BESIDES MENTIONING IT HERE. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WE'LL GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE.
FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ANY RESULTING
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT AND WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15
KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ204-210.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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