347
FXUS63 KLBF 080956 CCA
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY,
WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA,
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLE WARM DAY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK TODAY, LIMITING DEEP MIXING WITH WESTERLY WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE WEST AND 5 TO 10 MPH EAST. A BLEND OF NBM
AND THE WARMER NBM 50TH PERCENTILE WERE USED FOR HIGHS TODAY FROM
65 TO AROUND 70. THESE HIGHS ARE FROM 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MAINLY SUNNY WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
LOCALIZED FIRES HAVE OCCURRED THE PAST FEW DAYS, AND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FROM 15 TO AROUND 20 PERCENT.
WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WILL LIMIT THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRES.
ON MONDAY, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
INTO MINNESOTA, AND DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE WESTERLY WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
30 MPH. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BREAKDOWN, AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS FROM THE THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 75. THESE HIGHS WILL BE FROM 25 TO NEARLY 35 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE IS ABOUT 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS, SO EVEN WARMER HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. CURRENT RECORD HIGHS FOR
MONDAY ARE 74, 70, 69, AND 72 AT NORTH PLATTE, VALENTINE, BROKEN
BOW, AND IMPERIAL RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN AT IMPERIAL, NORTH PLATTE, AND BROKEN BOW.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO
RANGE AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY EVENING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR ANY
FIRES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR 0C. THIS
WILL BRING A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH
MUCH COOLER HIGHS RANGING FROM 44 TO 52 DEGREES. SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING. OVERALL, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, TO SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
SATURDAY. THESE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO STILL RANGE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
OVERALL UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION, AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LIFTING ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 20 TO 30 POPS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA, THOUGH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ONLY SHOWS A 20 TO 40
PERCENT PROBABIITY OF GREATER THAN A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH AND
THE GEFS ENSEMBLE 10 TO 20 PERCENT.
THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS (20 TO 30 PERCENT) ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE GEFS
INDICATES A 30 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING AT LEAST
A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID, WHILE THE ECMWF ONLY A 10 TO 20
PERCENT PROBABILITY. OVERALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR A WETTING RAIN
IS VERY LOW FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. PRECIPITATION TYPE FAVORS RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING, THEN AND WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page