199
FXUS63 KLBF 260512
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1112 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COMBINATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
- SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 6 PM CST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH COMBINE WITH
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.
IN ADDITION TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS AND
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AS QPF WILL REMAIN
VERY LIGHT A A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS, AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO
A THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE SHOWERS
LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS, WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES. ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOK TO HAVE A THREAT FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, AND
WOULD ALSO BE OF GREAT CONCERN FOR ANY FIRE STARTS.
SHOWERS QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOWS FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH HUMIDITY VALUES
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S, AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS
STRONG ON THURSDAY, WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH, AND HIGHER
GUSTS OF 25 MPH. AT THIS TIME, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AGAIN ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO A
SUNNY SKY AND NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH NEAR 70 FAR SOUTHWEST. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTS WINDS WILL BRING ANOTHER
DAY OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS SHOWN TO BE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FORECAST TO
CONTRAST FROM NEAR 40 NORTHEAST, TO LOW 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE AS THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST, WHILE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT IN THE EAST.
BY SUNDAY, THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THOUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. NBM PROBABILITIES ARE
FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT FOR 24 HOUR SNOWFALL OF AN INCH OR GREATER
FOR AREAS EAST OF VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW. ALSO, THE GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THIS, WHILE THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH LESS AND ARE ONLY IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA.
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. MAINLY DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY, AS THE
UPPER LOW BRINGS CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HIGHS SUNDAY COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER 20S, TO
MID 40S SOUTHWEST. A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
50S, WITH AROUND 60 BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 25000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND MAY GUST UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KTS AT THE KLBF
TERMINAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TODAY FROM THE WESTERN SANDHILLS SOUTH TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA. MINIMUM RH THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH 20 TO 25 PERCENT
OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS WILL
REACH 40 TO 45 MPH. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.
IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH COULD
IGNITE A WILDFIRE.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. MINIMUM RH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL FALL OFF TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY, WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH, AND HIGHER GUSTS OF 25 MPH. AT
THIS TIME, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ON FRIDAY, WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RH DOWN TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WHERE
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
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