265
FXUS63 KLBF 260908
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
308 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGE
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MILD, DRY,
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOW 30S
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MIGRATE EASTWARDS BY
LATE MORNING, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA, BRINGING LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF THE SUBTLE WIND SHIFT.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL AGAIN BE INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, AS A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON,
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. WINDS
ALOFT TODAY LOOK MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, AND SHOULD KEEP WINDS
LESS STRONG DESPITE ANOTHER DAY OF AMPLE DIURNAL MIXING. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SUGGESTS GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MILES PER HOUR THIS AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CONFIDENCE IN BOTH
THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
REMAINS LOW, THOUGH TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. AT
THIS TIME, THE GREATEST RISK FOR AN OVERLAP OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES. LOWS FALL
INTO THE LOW 30S INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH VERY POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY AMID THE PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF ONLY
40 TO 50 PERCENT IS EXPECTED.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, THOUGH WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS SLIGHT BOOST IN
TEMPERATURES TRANSLATES TO LOWERED HUMIDITY VALUES, WITH RH DROPPING
TO AS LOW AS 14 TO 20 PERCENT AREA WIDE. EVEN THOUGH WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED, WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON
FRIDAY VERSUS TODAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MILES PER
HOUR ARE EXPECTED AGAIN, AND SHOULD KEEP FIRE CONCERN NEAR CRITICAL.
AS WITH TODAY, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
LONGEVITY OF ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO INTRODUCE ANY FIRE HEADLINES
FOR NOW. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA, USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM
THE LOW 20S IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 30S IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE THIS FEATURE MAY
HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT'S GFS, EC AND NAM12 RUNS, THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A DECENT ARCTIC COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS SOLN IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT
APPROACHING THE I-80 CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. THE NAM12 AND
LATEST EC SOLNS HOLD OFF AROUND 12-18 HOURS, FORCING THIS
FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING. NO SURPRISE
THE LATEST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECS, MET AND MAV IS
VERY DIVERGENT ON ITS HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY-PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST EC, MET AND MAV
HAVE HIGHS SATURDAY FOR NORTH PLATTE OF 61, 58 AND 45 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MET
GUIDANCE AND WARMER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE. THAT BEING SAID,
DIDN'T SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE NBM GUIDANCE AS IT IS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER MET, EC AND COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MID LEVEL, POST FRONTAL FORCING FOR SNOW IS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. ON SUNDAY A ROBUST AREA OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS, AIDED BY JET STREAK LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. LAST NIGHT THE LATEST GFS
DEVELOPED SNOW ALONG THIS FORCING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA. WITH TONIGHT'S GFS RUN, THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRANSITIONED
SOUTH INTO KANSAS. EVEN WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHIFTING
PRECIPITATION SOUTH TONIGHT, THERE IS STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC EC AS WELL AS THE NBM TONIGHT WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THAT BEING
SAID, FAVOR THE ENSEMBLE BLEND OF THE NBM FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY/MONDAY AND LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH
THE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY AT BEST. BASED ON THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLNS, SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEEM
TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. ONE FINAL NOTE, THE
MID RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT
WEEK, WITH A TANDEM OF MID LEVEL LOWS, WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS HAVE THESE TWO
FEATURES SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM, SO THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE ALL LIQUID ATTM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 25000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND MAY GUST UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KTS AT THE KLBF
TERMINAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MIN RH FALLING AS LOW AS 18 PERCENT IN PORTIONS OF
GARDEN AND DEUEL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING COINCIDES WITH
POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF GARDEN
AND DEUEL COUNTIES. GIVEN THE SMALL AREA OF ZONE 204 WHICH TOUCHES
RED FLAG CONDITIONS AND THE SMALL WINDOW LESS THAN THREE HOURS, WILL
FORGO RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR ZONE 204 THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HIT THE
NEAR CRITICAL WORDING HARD IN THE FWF AND HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. WINDS HOWEVER
WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN
GARDEN AND WESTERN DEUEL COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF HITTING
RFW CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE HAS A 30-40% CHANCE
OF WIND GUSTS HITTING 25 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN GARDEN AND DEUEL
COUNTIES. IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE PANHANDLE THE THREAT WIND GREATER
THAN 25 MPH FALLS OFF CONSIDERABLY JUST EAST OF THE PANHANDLE. THAT
BEING SAID, DECIDED TO FORGO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND
WILL ONCE AGAIN HIT THE NEAR CRITICAL WORDING IN THE HWO AND FWF
PRODUCTS.
BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY
WEDNESDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS MID LEVEL
FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...BUTTLER
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