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FXUS63 KLBF 270538
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MILD, DRY, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST, AND LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT, WITH A PREVAILING WEST WIND TO AROUND 10 MPH.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE POOR TO AROUND 50
PERCENT.
FRIDAY, WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AND USED A BLEND OF THE NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SUNNY. LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BRING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS. FURTHER DETAILS FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE COLDER FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S
SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
ON SATURDAY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER ON EXTEND OF THE COLD AIR,
WITH THE ECMWF SLOWEST BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR, WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS THE COLDEST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW CONTRASTING HIGHS, FROM NEAR 40 FAR NORTHEAST
(BUTTE), TO LOW 60S FAR SOUTHWEST (IMPERIAL).
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN H7 TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE AND EASTERN CO LATE. ON
SUNDAY, A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE NBM
PROBABILITY OF AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL HAS LESSENED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY, AND IS ONLY 10 PERCENT NEAR AND
EAST OF BROKEN BOW THROUGH O'NEILL. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 FOR SUNDAY, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
TROUGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. MOVE INTO AND APPROACH THE
REGION. POPS ARE MAINLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY.PRECIPITATION
TYPE RAIN, AND/OR SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NBM PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR MORE IS HIGHEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, FROM 30 TO
50 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS MUCH NEEDED ACROSS THE AREA, THE OVERALL
CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW.
HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR WESTERN
SANDHILLS, TO LOW TO MID 30S EAST. MONDAY LOW 40S TO NEAR 50
AND 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY FROM
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH JUST SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SOME STRONGER NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA,
IMPACTING KVTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
ON FRIDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL LEAD
TO MINIMUM RH OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK,
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STRONGER LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH, AND LOCALLY
TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST AND ALSO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHERE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST.
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, AN OVERLAP OF WIND
GUSTS AND LOWEST HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED. THEREFORE, NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
BY SATURDAY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY WILL IMPROVE TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT, EXCEPT IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST (IMPERIAL), WHERE HUMIDITY MAY FALL TO NEAR 20
PERCENT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ204-208.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...KULIK
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
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