693
FXUS63 KLBF 011155
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
555 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRACK OF A LATE WEEK SYSTEM WHICH
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN/SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TODAY. SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW (WIND)
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
COOLER AIR WILL BE RECYCLED BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA,
TO MID 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AND CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
83. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. OTHER THAN BOUTS OF HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE WEATHER BEGINS TO CHANGE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND BE
LOCATED ACROSS WYOMING BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES, SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS COULD OCCUR
AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA, BUT MORE
LIKELY AREA-WIDE MONDAY NIGHT. POP CHANCES INCREASE TO ABOUT 30-50%
MONDAY NIGHT. ANY AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING ANY AMOUNTS OVER 1/10 OF AN INCH LIQUID.
HOWEVER, SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 30F AFTER
MIDNIGHT, SO A BIT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER ALOFT SHOULD SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION ALL
RAIN. EVEN THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, IT TAKES JUST A LITTLE
FREEZING RAIN TO MAKE CONDITIONS SLICK, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING, THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
DIMINISHES. HOWEVER, RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT OR
WIDESPREAD, INSTEAD, IT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION, SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY CONVECTION, BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL QUICKLY BE
DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THEREFORE, BY THE TIME TEMPERATURES DROP TO
BELOW FREEZING, PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA, AND THEREFORE, NOT EXPECTING A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS FOR THURSDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, THOUGH, AS THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL LOW ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE
LOW DEEPENS AND PUSHES THROUGH NEBRASKA, MUCH OF THE REGION COULD
SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW, HOWEVER, PRECIP TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION SEEING RAIN. AREAS ACROSS THE PINE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN COOLER AND COULD SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL
SNOW EVEN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO STILL SOME CONCERN
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS
COMING IN WITH A MORE NORTHERN TRACK LEADING TO LESS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
WITH PRECIPITATION AND PERSISTENT CLOUDS ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S (EVEN INTO THE LOW 70S IN SOME
LOCATIONS) THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION AND
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, IMPACTING KVTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS KANSAS. CEILINGS DOWN TO 8000 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLBF EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
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