864
FXUS63 KLBF 030539
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1139 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, THE SANDHILLS, AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES.
- LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
WET SURFACES, WHICH MAY SEE SOME SLIPPERY PATCHES AS OVERNIGHT
LOWS APPROACH FREEZING.
- A LATE WEEK SYSTEM BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THIS SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORCING REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK, BUT
SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA, AND
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WHICH SHOW THE PRIMARY MODE OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE DRIZZLE, WITH A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. WHILE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH, THE MAIN ISSUE
TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT RAIN CAUSING WET SURFACES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVERNIGHT ALSO SHOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HOVERING JUST
ABOVE FREEZING, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING AT OR JUST BELOW 32
DEGREES. WITH THESE TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL WET SURFACES, THIS
MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED PATCHES OF SLIPPERY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
IN LOWER LYING AREAS. AT THIS TIME, NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE PER SE, BUT MORE OF A LOCALIZED THREAT
FOR SOME PATCHES OF ICE AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.
THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE THREAT FOR FOG
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, ACROSS THE SANDHILLS, AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDERNEATH A STABLE LAYER ALOFT WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, DROPPING VISIBILITY BELOW
ONE MILE AT TIMES. WITH THE VICINITY OF THE NEARBY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, MAY ALSO SEE SOME DRIZZLE MIXING IN WITH THE FOG OVERNIGHT,
WHICH WILL ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. WILL BE
CONTINUING TO MONITOR EXPECTED IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT, AS
FOG HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE CONFIDENCE IN LOWEST VISIBILITY IS
INCREASED.
FOG AND DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING, AT
WHICH POINT, WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY, THIS COULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF
WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION, WITH AMOUNTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. WITH RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, HOWEVER, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AS SHOWERS TRACK OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING, WILL SEE A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THE RECENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO HELP KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 25 TO 30 PERCENT,
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CONDITIONS REMAIN
DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WHILE THESE
FORECAST HIGHS ARE ALREADY AROUND 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE, IT
IS WORTH POINTING OUT THAT THESE TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND THE 25TH
PERCENTILE OF CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE. LONG STORY SHORT, THIS MEANS WE
COULD SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS, BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION. THE EARLIEST ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
WHICH WILL FALL AS RAIN. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
IT DEVELOPS, AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES,
EXPECTING TO SEE SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FORECAST TRENDS AT THIS TIME, AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS AROUND MEDIUM IN
THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE STORM, WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
LOW IN PRECIPITATION TYPE, PLACEMENT, AND AMOUNTS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
CONTINUING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH A DRIER PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS GENERALLY REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW EJECTING TO THE EAST, WITH ANOTHER DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. WHAT REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN IS THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN JET
STREAM. HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE EAST, SHOULD START TO
SEE ANOTHER WARMING PATTERN THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO ABOVE SEASONAL. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, THE CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF NBM GUIDANCE, WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM HOVERING AROUND THE 10TH PERCENTILE. THIS AGAIN
MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND,
HOWEVER MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THESE POTENTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND MAY ALSO
USHER IN THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, THIS WILL
SUPPORT LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINING IN
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT IN THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM, WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS AT THIS TIME. IF WE GET MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN EXPECTED, THIS MAY HELP LIMIT CONCERNS. HOWEVER,
IF LITTLE PRECIPITATION OCCURS, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE CAUSE FOR CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IF WINDIER
CONDITIONS OCCUR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
ACTIVE AVIATION CONDITIONS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND INTO
THE SANDHILLS, RAIN AND FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. FOG COULD BE
DENSE AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT
TIMES. RAIN WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE CONTINUING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE FOG GRADUALLY IMPROVES THROUGH 18Z, THE
RAIN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS POOR WITH CONTINUED VISIBILITY CONCERNS
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. ONCE THE RAIN COMES TO AN END BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, VISIBILITY WILL ALSO IMPROVE BACK TO ABOVE 6SM. BY LATE
AFTERNOON, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA, FOG AND RAIN WILL FOR THE MOST PART STAY SOUTH OF KVTN.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT RAIN WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH AND
THEREFORE, HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT KVTN.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ027>029-037-038-057>059-069>071.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...KULIK
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