309
FXUS63 KLBF 031152
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
552 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA TODAY. HOWEVER, ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT (0.10" OR LESS)
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRACK OF A LATE WEEK SYSTEM WHICH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN/SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY EVENING,
SOME COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A DRY WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
CURRENTLY, FOG IS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, WITHIN AN AREA OF MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. VISIBILITIES
HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1 MILE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALREADY, AND THESE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THIS THINKING IN
MIND, HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING, WITH AN EXPECTATION THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND NEGATE THE THREAT FOR ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE.
FURTHER WEST, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING, WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (MUCAPE ~100-250J/KG) AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO,
AND IS EXPECTED TO EJECT SOUTHEAST TODAY, REACHING THE RED RIVER BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT, THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ROUGHLY ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING FGEN AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT,
PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE FRONT RANGE. FORCING LOOKS
TO MAXIMIZE LOCALLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61, IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM PASSING OFF TO THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
WANES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE AREA, DUE TO LESSER ASCENT
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EVEN WITH BETTER FORCING
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT
TODAY. HREF PROBABILITIES OF ANY PRECIPITATION (>0.01") ONLY CLIMB
TO ~30-40% FOR AREAS EAST OF HWY 61 THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING THAT
TO THE PROBABILITY FOR >0.1" SEES PROBABILITIES FALL TO <10% EAST OF
HWY 61, AND ONLY 30-50% WEST OF HWY 61. IN ALL, AREAS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 0.1" OR LESS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. AS
FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT
SHOULD ALL FALL AS RAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS,
WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB OUT OF THE MIDDLE 30S
AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON, FURTHER SUPPORTING
THE ALL RAIN P-TYPE.
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS, BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN OF DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA. HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH ALOFT BY TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION RETURNS AS WELL, BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. THESE MILD TEMPERATURES DO PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO AS LOW AS 20-30% TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT (<20MPH) FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS TOMORROW
NIGHT FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S, AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ON THURSDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY AND TEMPERATURES MILD AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO MID TO UPPER 60S WITH EVEN SOME
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 SEEING INTO THE LOW 70S.
THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW ARRIVES THURSDAY EVENING LASTING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PUSHES THROUGH
NEBRASKA, MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW. RAIN
WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ON THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. HOWEVER, AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
DEEPENING LOW, RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL
SNOW ON FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
MAY EVEN REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND AS FAR EAST AS
US-281 BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH
AS PRECIPITATION QUICKLY PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH, THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SANDHILLS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COOLER AIR
PUSHING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS FRONTIER COUNTY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP BACK DOWN
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM ALSO BRINGS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
EVENING. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES 500 TO 800 J/KG AND SOME STEEPER LAPSE
RATES BY THE EVENING TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE JUST OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. STILL, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. CURRENT SPC OUTLOOKS HIGHLIGHT THIS SAME AREA WITH A
MARGINAL RISK AS WELL, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
THE VERY LEAST SOME STRONGER, BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO
DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THANKS TO A SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, EXPECT HIGHS TO QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ON SATURDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
FOG COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 2 MILES AT TIMES. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT SOME LOWER VISIBILITY DUE TO THE RAIN. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING RETURNING TO
VFR OVERNIGHT. ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA, FOG AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
STAY SOUTH OF KVTN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ027>029-037-038-057>059-069>071.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
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