257
FXUS63 KLBF 040549
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1149 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. BEYOND TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A DRY FORECAST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS BRINGS OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF A LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, MOSTLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, A SURFACE LOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, AS WELL AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS
HAS BEEN THE CATALYST FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA, HOWEVER THIS
HAS BROUGHT VERY LITTLE IN MEASUREABLE RAINFALL. AS OBSERVED IN THE
18Z SOUNDING FROM LBF, THERE IS SOME MOISTURE ALOFT, BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO FALL THROUGH A FAIRLY DRY LOW LAYER. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME VIRGA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS AND SOME SPRINKLES THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IF
SOME BETTER MOISTENING OCCURS IN THE LOWEST LAYERS, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT AGAIN, VERY LITTLE
FOR ACTUAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION. IN FACT, THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS BOTH DAYS ARE ROUGHLY 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. INTERESTINGLY,
NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS AT OR BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE
OF TEMPERATURE SPREADS, SO HAVE ONCE AGAIN TRENDED THE FORECAST
HIGHS BACK TOWARDS THE 50TH PERCENTILE. WITH HOW DAILY HIGHS HAVE
BEEN PERFORMING RECENTLY, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME NEED TO INCREASE
THESE FURTHER, WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS, BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION. THE EARLIEST ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
WHICH WILL FALL AS RAIN. IN FACT, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH COULD BRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. CURRENTLY THINKING THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA, HOWEVER, SOME PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN EASTERN
CUSTER, GARFIELD, WHEELER, AND EASTERN HOLT COUNTIES. ALSO WORTH
MENTIONING THAT WITH THIS SET UP, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
HIGHLIGHTING A PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION, MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 183 WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH HAIL EXPECTED AS THE MAIN THREAT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THURSDAY EVENING, AS
SOME OF THE MORE FINE SCALE FEATURES BEGIN TO REVEAL THEIR HAND.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY, USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWS 40S IN
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BROKEN BOW TO
BUTTE. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE
SOUTHEAST AS MODELS STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH ALONG WITH PUSHING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND BETTER FORCING SOUTH.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW, MAINLY
WEST TO NORTHWEST OF US-83. REGARDLESS, THE SYSTEM REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE, WITH PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES.
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN
TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS AND
AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION, ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR
ADVECTION, EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO REACH THE MID 50S TO 60S,
WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S APPEAR LIKELY ON MONDAY, WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED DRYNESS AND THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY ON DAYS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 1 MILE AT
TIMES, POTENTIALLY DOWN TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE. FOG WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME, FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
KVTN AND THEREFORE, VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ026>028-
038-059-070-071.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...LABENZ
AVIATION...KULIK
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