845
FXUS63 KLBF 040846
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
246 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE THREAT
FOR BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY RAIN TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST.
- ACCUMULATING WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS ON
FRIDAY.
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
CURRENTLY, BROAD STRATUS SHIELD REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFTING IS NOTED ON RECENT SATELLITE
GUIDANCE. SIMILARLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FOG REPORTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S AND SHOULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST BY DAYBREAK.
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT LARGELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA BEYOND
MORNING FOG. HREF/SREF LINGER PROBABILITIES, SPECIFICALLY
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1SM, THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH DECREASING SIGNALS
BETWEEN 15-18Z (9AM-NOON CST). WEAK TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH TROUGH AXIS CLEARING WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
MIDDAY. BRIEF BUT STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW THIS FEATURE
WITH HEIGHT RISES PEAKING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.
INCREASING LEE-TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE
HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL REMAIN WEAK BUT MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION (WAA) SHOULD SUPPORT SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. WILL NUDGE UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ACROSS THE AREA AS DIRECTIONAL WINDS SUPPORT MORE DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
WINDS REMAIN WEAK, HOWEVER, AND OFFSET THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY AIR TO LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AN INCREASING LLJ
LATER IN THE EVENING MAY ALLOW STEADY WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVE KEEP THINGS ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK. AREAS TO THE SOUTH IN ADDITION TO THE SHELTERED EAST/WEST
VALLEYS SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...DEEPER TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN BY EARLY THURSDAY. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AND USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE WITH
UNIMPEDED FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PWAT) VALUES TO CLIMB RAPIDLY, WITH GEFS/EPS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING ANOMALIES OF NEARLY 200% OF NORMAL EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
NBM90 SUGGESTS LIGHT QPF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING SIMILAR WITHIN THE STRONG WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION. WILL
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE (< 25%) POP TO MATCH THIS THINKING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. POPS QUICKLY
INCREASE AS WAA IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL
DYNAMICS VIA STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BENEATH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 90-100 KNOT H25 JET. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW, LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL STEEPEN AND PROMOTE MODEST INSTABILITY
WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE SPC HAS MAINTAINED A DAY
2 MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ELEVATED HAIL STORMS. INSPECTION
OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A DEEP FRONTAL INVERSION WITH UPWARDS OF
750 J/KG MUCAPE ROOTED AROUND H75. HODOGRAPHS SHOW GOOD SPEED SHEAR
ABOVE THE INVERSION, WITH 2-6KM BWD OF 30-40 KNOTS. AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH COOL FRONT FROM THE NORTH, BELIEVE
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING BUT
CAPPING SHOULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC IN THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED WAA IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE INCREASING FGEN ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO LIKELY (60-70%) POPS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES. AS TEMPERATURES FALL, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY CLEAN
TRANSITION WITH COPIOUS ICE NUCLEI AND STEADILY FALLING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. WHAT IS MOST CONCERNING WITH THIS SNOW POTENTIAL IS
SNOW RATES. SREF PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 0.01"/3 HOURS IS NEARING
70% IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST BUT SIMILARLY, PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING
0.25"/3 HOURS TOP OUT AROUND 10-20%. WITH STRONG FGEN, DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SHOW HEAVY QPF WITH AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 0.50" DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE IDEA THIS FALLS AS SNOW, HEAVY/WET SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 2-4". COMBINED WITH EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 30 MPH, DO ANTICIPATE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES IN THE AREA. WILL HAVE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL IN THE COMING DAYS FOR ANY
POTENTIAL HEADLINE NEEDS. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY, THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION SHOULD
SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE SANDHILLS.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST,
WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF A CHAPPELL TO
AINSWORTH. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 30S IN OUR NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 50S TOWARDS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS THE MAIN H5 TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST,
RENEWED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES WESTERN
NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LIMITED GIVEN VARYING OUTPUT FROM
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUTS, HOWEVER, BELIEVE POPS SHOULD WANE IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
AS PRECIPITATION PUSHES OUT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, ZONAL FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURGE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 9 TO 14 C RANGE
WILL PUSH INTO NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST PROBABILITY GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING
OVER 80 DEGREES TO BE OVER 90 PERCENT. IN ADDITION, LOOKING AT THE
LATEST EFI REMAINS HIGH (0.6 TO 0.7) INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MORE
EXTREME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WOULD
EXPECT THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED HIGHS TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES,
AT LEAST INTO THE 80S.
WITH THE RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MONDAY, THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE ON MONDAY WHEN
HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS WELL ON MONDAY. WITH FUELS DRY AND READY TO
BURN, WILL INTRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A RETURN TO PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE FRONT RANGES. WITH PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND TEMPERATURES
HOVERING NEAR FREEZING, PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, RAIN WILL
BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING. ACCUMULATIONS AS
WELL AS TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN, AND THEREFORE DETAILS
WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY TUNED TO
THE MOST RECENT FORECASTS REGARDING THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 1 MILE AT
TIMES, POTENTIALLY DOWN TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE. FOG WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME, FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
KVTN AND THEREFORE, VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ026>028-
038-059-070-071.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page