996
FXUS63 KLBF 050553
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1153 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3 INCHES, ESPECIALLY
NEAR PINE RIDGE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LASTING LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A POTENTIAL RETURN OF ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING, WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO TRACK ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS
PROVIDES A SLIGHT RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, BRINGING ANOTHER
NIGHT OF CALM WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
ADVECTION WILL BRING ANOTHER TONGUE OF MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION, EXPECTING THAT PATCHY FOR ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS
ALONG PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ESPECIALLY ALONG
LOWER LYING REGIONS AND RIVER VALLEYS. NOT EXPECTING FOG HEADLINES
TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME, BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ON THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL INTENSIFY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND
MULTIFACETED WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. FIRST UP WILL BE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA, A MODEST AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST FAIR AMOUNTS OF SPEED SHEAR
ALONG THIS INSTABILITY AXIS, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE MORE
ELEVATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS, EXPECTING THAT THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE HAIL. WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY
EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO
TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST, EXPECTING A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ALONG THE
FRONT. SOMEWHAT COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT
TRACKS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 30S, WITH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY IN THE MID 50S. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFFECTING
PRECIPITATION TYPES. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
EXPECTING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THIS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OUT OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW, HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PINE RIDGE AND
INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY, WHERE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED. GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH
ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN AINSWORTH TO
OGALLALA LINE. HOWEVER, STARTING TO SEE SOME SIGNALS IN BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING, LARGELY
DRIVEN BY STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THESE FORECAST TRENDS, SINCE THIS COULD SIGNAL
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING, ZONAL FLOW RETURNS. RESULTING FROM THIS PATTERN WILL BE
WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND PEAKING MONDAY. A SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO MOVE IN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO
60S. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE PEAK OF HIGH
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE
OF 9 TO 16 C, THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S, SO IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING IF FORECASTED HIGHS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES MORE
INTO THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY CHALLENGING RECORD
HIGHS.
AS SUCH, THE RETURN TO WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS, MEANS AN
INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE SOME ELEVATED CONCERNS, MONDAY
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CONCERN. ON MONDAY, HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NE AND MID
TO LOW 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND PANHANDLE. THE LOW
HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO
30 MPH, WILL MAKE NEAR- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DAY WILL ALREADY BE SO WARM WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
A POTENTIAL RETURN TO SOME MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM
STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH. WITH PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME STILL
HOVERING JUST BELOW FREEZING, THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT
AS SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN BUT WILL BE FINE-
TUNED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET, WITH THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO THE
REGION BY MID-EVENING. ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL, AND STRONG, ERRATIC WINDS. EXPECT SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY. AT KVTN, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION UNTIL AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ010-028-029.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...KULIK
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