225
FXUS63 KLBF 051753
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1153 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED HAIL UP TO ONE INCH THE MAIN CONCERN.
- RAIN BECOMING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS POTENTIALLY LEADING TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES
ON FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COOLDOWN ARRIVES
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
CURRENTLY, SKIES REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
AREA REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN DEPARTING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY NEAR THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO THE WEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ENHANCED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH A
PERSISTENT STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TRACKING SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS ALIGNS WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST H25 JET MAX. FOG
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL HAMPER TRAVEL FOR THE EARLY MORNING
THURSDAY AND DENSE FOG ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 11AM CST
FOR WHEELER/GARFIELD/HOLT COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, LOWS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD AT OR ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOST OTHER THAN
TYPICAL SHELTERED AREAS.
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL
PROMOTE LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HELPS OFFSET ANY BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING. ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOES UNTIL 11AM CST AND THIS
ALIGNS WITH HREF/SREF PROBABILITIES OF < 1SM VISIBILITY LARGELY
DISAPPEARING. STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GUST AROUND 25 TO 35
MPH FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. EVEN THOUGH DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE 60S TO LOW 70S, OR 15-20F ABOVE NORMAL, DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 40S WILL PRECLUDE ANY GREATER FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. WHILE LOWER HUMIDITY IS LIKELY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61, WINDS
ARE MUCH WEAKER AND THUS CONCERN IS MUTED. INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION (WAA) LATE TODAY WILL LEAD TO STEADILY INCREASING POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SREF/HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS MEASURABLE QPF
POTENTIAL ARRIVING LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY BUT VARY ON
PLACEMENT. SREF IS FURTHER WEST WHILE THE HREF IS FURTHER EAST AND
MORE MUTED. THE TREND FOR THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TO DECREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL. IT ISN'T UNTIL MIDNIGHT WHERE LIKELY
CATEGORIES (55-75%) APPEAR ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS
COINCIDES WITH THE GREATEST SIGNAL FOR THUNDER WITH NAM12 SHOWING
EXPANSIVE NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND HREF MEAN OUTPUT PAINTS 500-
1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME AND SEE NO
REASON TO STRAY FROM THIS THOUGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG
SPEED SHEAR IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE LAYER ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION. THIS SUPPORTS ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL UP
TO 1.00" IN DIAMETER. AS WAA CONTINUES ABOVE THE INVERSION, A STOUT
WARM NOSE WILL DEVELOP AND SHOULD QUELL DEVELOPMENT AS WE GET CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A SHORT WINDOW FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, HREF > 40 DBZ PAINTBALLS ARE
NONEXISTENT UNTIL CLOSER TO 08-10Z (2-4AM CST)AND IT'S ONLY THE
MIDDAY HRRR RUN SHOWING THAT. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED
IN ACTUALLY SEEING ANYTHING REMOTELY CLOSE TO STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION IN THE LOCAL AREA. FURTHER NORTHWEST, DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT SOUTH OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THIS
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY COOL PROFILES AND SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. WHILE CAA WILL BE MODERATELY
STRONG, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE MODEST AND SO
PREVIOUS THOUGHTS OF A STRONG FGEN BAND SETTING UP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE INTO THE SANDHILLS APPEAR TO BE ON THE DECREASE SOMEWHAT.
EVEN SO, MODEST FGEN AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OFF THE PINE RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT STEADY SNOW WITH MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW INTENSITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE STRONGER INTENSITIES OCCUR EARLY IN
THE MORNING, GREATER SNOWFALL IMPACTS WOULD BE LIKELY. AS IT STANDS
NOW, THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS MAINLY A DAYTIME TIMING FOR PEAK LIFT
AND THIS SHOULD HAMPER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT. OVERALL THINKING
REMAINS FAIRLY UNCHANGED...GENERALLY 1-3" NORTHWEST OF A CHAPPELL TO
AINSWORTH LINE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 4" NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE AND THIS LINES UP WELL WITH HREF PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEAN
OUTPUT. WITH LOW RATIO HEAVY/WET SNOW EXPECTED AND STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30-35 MPH, BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN AND
TRAVEL IMPACTS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE SANDHILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WERE LOWERED ON ACCOUNT OF CAA AND ACTIVE
PRECIPITATION LIKELY HOLDING BACK ANY DIURNAL BUMP ACROSS THE AREA.
THE RESULT IS A WIDESPREAD 3-6F DROP WITH VALUES RANGING FROM MIDDLE
30S OVER THE SANDHILLS TO NEAR 50F TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BUT THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD QUICKLY END ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST.
VIA THE MODEL BLEND, POPS LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN OUR
EASTERN ZONES BUT DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
AS PRECIPITATION PUSHES OUT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
7 TO 14 C RANGE WILL PUSH INTO NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST PROBABILITY GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING OVER 80 DEGREES TO BE OVER 80
PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
IN ADDITION, LOOKING AT THE LATEST EFI REMAINS HIGH (0.7 TO
0.8) WITH MARGINAL SOT (BETWEEN 0 AND 1) INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT MORE EXTREME, POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
SPEAKING OF RECORDS, RECORD HIGHS CURRENTLY SIT AT 81, 78, 79,
AND 80 AT NORTH PLATTE, VALENTINE, BROKEN BOW, AND IMPERIAL
RESPECTIVELY. IF TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE INTO THE 80S ON
MONDAY, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THESE SITES WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY
TO BREAK NEW RECORDS.
A RETURN TO PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE FRONT RANGES. WITH PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND TEMPERATURES
HOVERING NEAR FREEZING, PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, RAIN WILL
BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING. ACCUMULATIONS AS
WELL AS TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN, AND THEREFORE DETAILS
WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRACKS THAT ARE A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE EAST KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF OUR
AREA. WHILE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED, IF THE TRACK
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT, WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
DIMINISH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS. STAY TUNED TO THE MOST RECENT
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS MID-WEEK SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH - SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 KTS. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, PATCHY FOG
MAY SETTLE IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, BRINGING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, AND POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL, AND STRONG, ERRATIC
WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE IN AND PUSH THE FOG OUT
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
UPWARDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF KVTN NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MIXED
PRECIP WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST BEYOND THE
TAF PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FORECAST FOR FUTURE
UPDATES.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...MRS
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