252
FXUS63 KLBF 051959
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
159 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED, SOME STRONGER ISOLATED STORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- A COMPLEX WINTER SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MAY CAUSE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE. BEHIND THE FRONT, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
- A RETURN TO WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS RECEIVED WITH
FRIDAY'S SYSTEM, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON, PROVIDING A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS IS EVIDENT FROM INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. A SURFACE LOW IS OBSERVED
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, AND WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE WEST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND PUSH OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, EXPECTING TO SEE
INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THIS
ONGOING SET UP, THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE REGION, WHERE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, STILL CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNALS FOR
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY ALOFT LATER TONIGHT, WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW,
IF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT, COULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS, BRINGING A RISK FOR SMALL
HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION LATER TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 183, WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER 9 PM CENTRAL. WHILE THE
MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE AREA, STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELL PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL, BUT EXPECT THIS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.
WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT
AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WITH THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS, BELIEVE THAT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT PERSISTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE.
HOWEVER, THE WEATHER IMPACTS DON'T END THERE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT, IT WILL TRACK THE
COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS, PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL INITIALLY AS RAIN, THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA, EXPANDING SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE
COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE ARE INCREASED SIGNALS FOR
MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN, ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT. MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START BY EARLY MORNING, THEN CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE INTO THE EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT GLAZE OF
ICE AHEAD OF THE TRANSITION TO SNOW, WHICH COULD CREATE SOME HIDDEN
SLIPPERY SPOTS ON SURFACES.
ALSO COMPLICATING THE FORECAST, THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN MODEL
GUIDANCE ON POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THE SNOWFALL, WHICH
MAY CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL. REMNANT INSTABILITY
ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO REMAIN, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME STRONGER BANDS TO DEVELOP. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS
IN BANDED SNOWFALL DEVELOPING, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN WHERE THE BAND SETS UP, AND HOW LONG THE BAND WILL BE. FOR NOW,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE SANDHILLS
FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BANDS TO
PERSIST FURTHER EAST AND FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE HIGHER SNOWFALL
RATES IN THESE BANDS, COULD SEE HIGH END AMOUNTS AROUND 5 TO 6
INCHES IN BANDED SNOWFALL. ALSO WORTH MENTIONING, THIS IS MOSTLY
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF A WET, HEAVY SNOW, WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AS SNOW IS FALLING, ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25 MPH, GUSTING 30 TO
40 MPH, IS EXPECTED TO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY. THIS MAY IMPACT BOTH THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES,
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES PERSIST. SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY TRACKS EAST.
WITH ALL OF THESE HAZARDS COMBINED, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE SANDHILLS ON THIS SHIFT.
THE AREAS IN THE ADVISORY REPRESENT THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
OF WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WITH SUCH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE EASTERN EXTENT OF WINTER IMPACTS, THERE
MAY STILL BE NEED FOR FURTHER EXPANSION, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2. WORTH POINTING OUT THAT THIS ADVISORY IS NOT FOR SNOW
ALONE, BUT RATHER THE COMBINATION OF IMPACTS FROM A LIGHT ICE GLAZE,
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS (BANDS UP TO 5 TO 6 INCHES) AND
POTENTIAL BLOWING SNOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT, THE WINTER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSE OF
IMPACTFUL WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS!
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
AFTER AN EVENTFUL WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
A RETURN OF WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT, BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CURRENTLY
EXPECTING HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE 50S, WHICH WILL HELP MELT THE
FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW AND ICE. MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CERTAIN WET
SURFACES SATURDAY NIGHT, AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. AREAS BELOW FREEZING MAY SEE SOME ICY PATCHES
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IF WET SURFACES REMAIN FROM MELTING SNOW AND
ICE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS, RETURNING US TO
ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S EACH DAY. AGAIN, THESE HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NBM GUIDANCE, SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR THESE HIGHS TO TREND
WARMER AS WE APPROACH EARLY WEEK. WITH A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES, EXPECT TO SEE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP
INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND THE SANDHILLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH THESE CONDITIONS
RETURNING, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WE RECEIVE
WITH THIS WINTER SYSTEM, AS SOME MORE MOISTURE MAY HELP LIMIT A
GREATER CONCERN. HOWEVER, LATER PERIODS IN THE FORECAST WILL HAVE
HIGHER CHANCES, AS ANY MOISTURE FROM FRIDAY'S SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE.
A MID WEEK SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS THIS AT LESS
THAN A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. IN
FACT, CHANCES FOR ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE PRACTICALLY ZERO
AT THIS TIME WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THIS MAY PROVIDE ONE
COOLER DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH - SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
TO 30 KTS. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, PATCHY FOG
MAY SETTLE IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, BRINGING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, AND POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL, AND STRONG, ERRATIC
WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE IN AND PUSH THE FOG OUT
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
UPWARDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF KVTN NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MIXED
PRECIP WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST BEYOND THE
TAF PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FORECAST FOR FUTURE
UPDATES.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
TO NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ004-005-022>025-035-
036-056-057-094.
SYNOPSIS...RICHIE
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...MRS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page