751
FXUS63 KLBF 061756
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1156 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HWY 83.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW,
GREATEST CHANCE FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE SANDHILLS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A RETURN OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY. AS FAR
AS THE FOG POTENTIAL GOES, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION. GENERALLY THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG WILL
BE ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 83. HOWEVER THE FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS
BRIEF AS THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT TRANSLATES EASTWARD. EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MORNING.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SPREADS EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY
START OFF AS RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE
IN PRECIPITATION THERE WILL BE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS, ON THING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/MIXED WINTRY PRECIP FARTHER EAST OF THE
ADVISORY AREA, ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST A BRIEF 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD WHERE THERE COULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS
LOW BUT HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN, WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRETHS, BUT COULD SEE THE
NEED FOR AN EASTERN EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY SHOULD CONFIDENCE
INCREASE. AS FOR THE AREA LOCATED WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE BAND OF
SNOWFALL SUPPORTED BY THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/WESTERN SANDHILLS WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME THE SETUP FOR THE BAND
OF SNOW LOOKS GREATEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
INTO THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS, GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 83. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR IN ADDITIONAL IMPACTS AS STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SUSTAINED WIND WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUST UP TO 40 MPH OR GREATER. THIS WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AS THE SNOW IS FALLING AND WILL EXPECT
TO SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES, MOST NOTICEABLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES. HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL EXIST IN THE
CONVECTIVE BAND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES. AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST WILL SEE SNOWFALL TAPER OFF BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
BROAD ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHES ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM, WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED. THIS
ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE AREA
LARGELY DEVOID OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
PASSES OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW FOR NOW, THOUGH LIGHT PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THAT SAID,
NBM PROBABILITIES OF ANY PRECIPITATION (>0.01") ONLY CLIMB TO ~20-
30% ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL REVOLVE AROUND FIRE
WEATHER, AS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN FOR
MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL
COMBINE WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND LEAD TO DAILY MINIMUM HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE EXACT DEGREE OF FIRE
WEATHER THREATS WILL DEPEND ON WINDS EACH DAY, THOUGH AT LEAST
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS LOOK TO DEVELOP NEARLY
EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
LOW STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED. SNOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING KANW AND KONL. PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
WINDS REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35KTS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15KTS.
WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SATURDAY
FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-035-036-056-057-094.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...ROBERG
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