221
FXUS63 KLBF 062053
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
253 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW, AND MIXED PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING THE RETURN OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS
WITHIN AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE H7 TO H5 LAYER. THE
LOCATION IS WEST OF LISCO THROUGH MERRIMAN, AN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BEFORE THIS AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS ENDS. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST TO 40
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY CAUSE PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW AS WELL.
ANOTHER AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO,
AIDED BY A CLOSED H5 LOW CENTERED NEAR DENVER AT 21Z WHICH BECOMES
OPEN ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY
00Z. THE H7 TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A NEW AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS WITH SNOW DEVELOPING FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
INTO DEUEL AND GARDEN COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
EVENING, A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
AROUND 30 MILES WIDE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM BIG SPRINGS
THROUGH AINSWORTH, WITH A SECONDARY BAND POSSIBLE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST, FROM NORTH PLATTE THROUGH BREWSTER. THE LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE 1 TO 2 MESOSCALE BANDS
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 1
TO 3 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE. AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOSTLY BE A LIGHT GLAZE WITH UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH LOCALLY. WITH THE THREAT FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND
NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW
INCLUDES THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SNOW
WILL QUICKLY END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS COMES TO AN
END.
ON SATURDAY, MUCH WARMER AIR WILL RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE H5
TROUGH AXIS. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE WEST
AND 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE EAST. HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
WITH SUNNY SKIES. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO FALL TO 30 TO 35
DEGREES AS A WESTERLY BREEZY CONTINUES BENEATH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
WARMER, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN A COMMON THEME THIS YEAR
AND IT RETURNS ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND ZONAL FLOW BUILDS BACK IN
LATE THIS WEEKEND, REMAINING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT OF
THIS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL LARGELY KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO A MINIMUM. WITH THE AID OF A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE DOES
STILL REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
CENTRAL NE WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF >0.01" CLIMBING UP TO JUST LESS
THAN 50% BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS
LOW FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE FIRE WEATHER. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE RETURNING TO OUR REGION.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID LOW 50S TO LOW 60S, HIGHS WILL
BE AVERAGING IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. KEYING IN ON MONDAY
ESPECIALLY, LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN
MID TEENS, ALLOWING WARM SURFACE HIGHS TO POTENTIALLY PEAK INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR SOUTHWEST NE. COMBINE THIS WITH HUMIDITIES IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WILL MAKE FOR
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS. ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND
OVERLAY WITH THESE WARM, DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
LOW STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED. SNOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING KANW AND KONL. PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
WINDS REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35KTS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15KTS.
WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SATURDAY
FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-035-036-056-057-094.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...ROBERG
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