711
FXUS63 KLBF 071119
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
519 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS. BY SUNDAY, A COMBINATION OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY BRING A RETURN OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
FIRE WEATHER THREATS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA.
- LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME, ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN, AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CUT OFF LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, WITH THE REMAINING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN JET
STREAM TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST. WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, BY THE EVENING, EXPECTING THAT SOME
SUBTLE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AND
WESTERLY WINDS FROM DOWNSLOPING, EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL HELP SUPPORT MELTING OF SNOW AND
ICE FROM YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE,
ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS, KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
EXPECTING THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, WITH
SOME AREAS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WET
SURFACES FROM SNOW AND ICE MELT, AS LOWS AROUND AND JUST BELOW
FREEZING MAY CAUSE SOME BRIEF SLIPPERY SPOTS.
THE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY DIMINISHES ON SUNDAY, WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THE CORE OF THE STRONGER WINDS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE, WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES, BRINGING A RETURN OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECTING MOST OF THE AREA
TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S, WITH SOME AREAS REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S.
WITH THE RETURN OF THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES, EXPECT TO SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LOWER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING UP TO
35 MPH AT TIMES, COMBINED WITH THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY USHER IN A RETURN OF ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL AGAIN CONTINUE TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, EXPECTING
LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE GENERALLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SUPPORT YET ANOTHER
WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THIS IS DUE TO
CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW, WHICH HELPS TO BOOST HIGHS INTO THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CURRENT FORECASTED
HIGHS CONTINUE TO SIT NEAR THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
(BELOW 25TH PERCENTILE), AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS TOWARDS
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. SHOULD THE WARMER TEMPERATURES VERIFY,
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. COMBINE THIS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS, AND CONCERNS ARE
INCREASING FOR NEAR CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY
CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A
SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT,
WITH P-TYPE BEING DRIVEN BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE. NBM PROBABILITIES OF
ANY PRECIPITATION (>0.01") HAVE CREPT UP TO AS HIGHS AS 40-60% FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, THOUGH PROBABILITIES OF >0.10" REMAIN 20% OR
LESS. AT THIS TIME, THIS POINTS TO A THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS, AND ANY IMPACTS LOOK LIMITED AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE WANES
INTO LATE WEEK, THOUGH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE CONCERNS
LOOK TO RETURN TO THE AREA AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS REMAIN
NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE MORNING, AT 10 TO 15KTS. WINDS THEN
BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25KTS
EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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