047
FXUS63 KLBF 080532
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 70 TO LOWER 70S.
THE COMBINATION OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BRING A RETURN
OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- HIGHS TO REACH THE 70S ON MONDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA.
- A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
WESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT, HELPING
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED, WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN COLORADO. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER, AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MUCH WARMER, FROM
NEAR 70 TO THE LOW 70S. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO AS LOW
AS THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THIS WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS, WITH ELEVATED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY NIGHT, WESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL PERSIST,
HELPING KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED, WITH LOWS FROM 35 TO 40.
HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT FROM 60 TO 65 PERCENT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
U.S. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA,
WITH MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES FROM 12-19C, AND A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WIND,
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH UPPER 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF I80. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS, WHERE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WILL
COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
MONDAY NIGHT, AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE COOLER FROM 50 TO 55 NORTH, TO THE LOW TO MID 60S
SOUTH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MT AND EASTERN WY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS BY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH POPS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT, PROBABILITIES
OF >0.10" ARE FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS, WHILE 20 PERCENT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. AT THIS TIME,
THIS POINTS TO A THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, AND ANY
IMPACTS LOOK LIMITED TO JUST THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS, SHOULD ANY
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP.
COOLER WEDNESDAY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH A BRIEF,
STRONG WARMUP INTO THE 70S THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEEK, WITH 50S TO MID 60S FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS REMAIN WEST
THROUGH SUNRISE, AT 10 TO 15KTS. WINDS THEN STRENGTHEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KTS FOR ALL AREA
TERMINALS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BROWN
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