028
FXUS63 KLBF 080807
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
307 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY.
- A PAIR OF COOL FRONTS LATER THIS WEEK WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE LOCAL
AREA, INCLUDING THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW.
- RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME,
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ON THURSDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG WEST WINDS AND VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES REMAIN MOST CLEAR WITH HIGH CIRRUS
COVERING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SKY COVER WAS
TRACKING NORTH TO SOUTH AND SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DURATION OF SUNDAY. A MODEST SURFACE TRACK WAS STALLED ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, HINTED AT BY A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT BUT INCREASED
MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THE FEATURE WHERE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S VERSUS UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST. STEADY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S, OR NEARLY 5 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK
SOUTH AND EAST AS PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY, WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS LEE TROUGHING DEEPENS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY DRAW
IN DRIER DESERT SOUTHWEST AIR WHILE ALSO BOOSTING AFTERNOON HIGHS
CONSIDERABLY FROM SATURDAY'S VALUES. SATURDAY EVENING RAOB DATA
MEASURED AN H85 TEMPERATURE OF 4.4C WHICH NEARS THE MEDIAN VALUE FOR
THE DATE IN THE STATION'S CLIMATOLOGY. LOOKING AHEAD TO TODAY,
PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH THESE VALUES INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. WITH SNOWPACK EFFECTIVELY ERASED,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS
RECEIVED A GOOD BUMP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND MIDDLE 70S. THESE VALUES
ARE ROUGHLY 20 TO 30F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE MARCH. WITH
H7 TRAJECTORIES NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT RANGE, EXPECTING
TO SEE VERY DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH DETAILS CONTAINED BELOW IN THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION. STEADY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN WITH DETAILS CONTAINED BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE POLAR JET
SETTLES SOUTH. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS LEADING TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN WYOMING. AS A SURFACE TROUGH WORKS DOWN FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR INVADES THE REGION. THE WARMING AND DRYING OF AIR DESCENDING
THE TOPOGRAPHY WILL SUPPORT EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS H85
TEMPERATURES MAKE A RUN AT 20C IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE GOING
FORECAST CALLS FOR WIDESPREAD 70S TO NEAR 80F IN OUR FAR SOUTH, BUT
THIS STILL UNDERCUTS NBM MEDIAN VALUES AS WELL AS MOST IF NOT ALL
STATISTICAL OUTPUTS. THE MAV SOLUTIONS, WHICH HANDLES DOWNSLOPE DRY
REGIME TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WELL, SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SPOTS HIT 80F
INCLUDING LBF WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 2F OF A NEW RECORD HIGH. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED TO THE SANDHILLS, WITH FAIRLY
QUICK DECREASES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FROM THIS AREA. A NOTABLE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER LATE IN
THE DAY, WITH A LATE PUSH FROM INCREASING FLOW ORTHOGONAL TO THE
BOUNDARY AS CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A
QUICK COOLDOWN LATE MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM
LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO LOWER 30S SOUTH AND EAST. AS TIMING OF
THE FRONT BECOMES MORE PRECISE, EXPECT SOME VARIABILITY IN THESE
FORECAST VALUES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
A COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING, AS A
SURFACE LOW EJECTS EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO
THE UPPER 50S SOUTH OF I-80. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EJECTING ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH A CONSTRICTING THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING FGEN WITH
ITS PASSAGE. THE INCREASING FORCING WILL LEAD TO INITIAL LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW QUICKLY MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THIS
AREA, WITH AN ALL SNOW P-TYPE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL NEED TO BE
ERODED SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS, WITH PROBABILITIES OF
>0.10" ONLY MAXIMIZING AS HIGH AS 30-40% NORTH OF HWY 2.
ASSOCIATED SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN <1" AT THIS
TIME.
NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, POINTING TO
DRIER CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK. AT LEAST SOME FIRE
CONCERNS LOOK TO QUICKLY RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND BECOME VERY
CONCERNING BY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY, THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL
FIRE CONCERNS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY, AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. STRONG H7-H85 FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40-
50KTS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THURSDAY. AS AMPLE DIURNAL MIXING IS ACHIEVED, THIS HIGH MOMENTUM
FLOW WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS 45 TO 55 MILES
PER HOUR. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER (55+
MPH) THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. HOWEVER, THESE
STRENGTHENING WIND GUSTS WILL OVERLAP NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES (70S
TO NEAR 80) AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARDS A
PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
ONE CAVEAT AT THIS RANGE LOOKS TO BE A THREAT FOR HIGH CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COULD IMPACT THE DEGREE OF MIXING SOMEWHAT. TRENDS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A
RETURN OF COOLER HIGHS (50S TO LOW 60S) FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
SOME THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN TO THE AREA AS WELL, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS FOR NOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS REMAIN WEST
THROUGH SUNRISE, AT 10 TO 15KTS. WINDS THEN STRENGTHEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KTS FOR ALL AREA
TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN HIGH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS,
CULMINATING IN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA ON
MONDAY.
SUNDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING INTO AN
APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, OR APPROXIMATELY
20-30F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. WHILE THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS
CAUSE FOR CONCERN, THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING CRITICAL HUMIDITY
LEVELS (< 15% FOR 204, 206, 208, 210, 219; < 20% FOR 209). HREF
PROBABILITIES OF FALLING BELOW 20% RH ARE LARGELY LIMITED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER SYSTEM WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
WEAKEST. GUST POTENTIAL OVER THE SANDHILLS IS NOMINAL, WITH 60%+
SIGNAL FROM NBM OUTPUT OF EXCEEDING 34 KNOT (~39 MPH) GUSTS. IT'S
NOTEWORTHY TO POINT OUT THAT HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IN ADDITION TO
THE GFS, WITH IT'S OVER-MIXING BIAS, DOES NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW
CRITICAL HUMIDITY LEVELS BEING MET. TYPICALLY, WITH THE LACK OF A
SIGNAL FROM THESE PARTICULAR SETS OF GUIDANCE, IT CASTS ADDITIONAL
DOUBT ON SEEING CRITICAL HUMIDITY LEVELS REACHED. BECAUSE OF THIS AS
WELL AS THE LACK OF OVERLAP OF LOWER HUMIDITY AND THE STRONGER
GUSTS, WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...THE GREATER FIRE WEATHER CONCERN DAY FOR THE EARLY WEEK
WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER EASTERN WYOMING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE TROUGH
WITH GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE WILL SEE A SIZABLE BOOST
WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A THERMAL RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH INCREASINGLY DRY AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD QUICKLY
PLUMMET AND REACH CRITICAL VALUES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS INCREASED 3-5F ACROSS THE
BOARD, BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN, THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
THE GOING FORECAST FALLS CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE NBM 25TH
PERCENTILE OUTPUT AND IS CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE. BELIEVE FURTHER
INCREASES WITH LATER FORECASTS MAY BE NECESSARY, PERHAPS CLOSER
IN LINE WITH MAV GUIDANCE, WHICH SUGGESTS RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT A FEW SITES (LBF, IML, AND MAYBE BBW). WITH
FURTHER INCREASES IN TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE TO NO ADJUSTMENTS
TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING BELOW 15% FOR
MANY LOCATIONS APPEAR TO BE A SAFE BET. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE FROM SUNDAY'S PEAK SPEEDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS RANGES FROM
60- 90% FOR ZONE 204, AND WESTERLY ZONE 206/208. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING INTO STRONGER H7 FLOW WITH MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SUPPORTING GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 TO 45 MPH. WHAT CASTS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW EXACTLY THE DAY WILL EVOLVE IS A STEADY
STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL DRYING OF AIR IS LIKELY AS AIR DESCENDS WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, FORECAST HIGHS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING COULD BE HAMPERED ENOUGH TO LIMIT GUSTS FROM ACHIEVING
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH
ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE WITH LATER FORECASTS.
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY,
BRINGING A QUICK RETURN OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THESE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DRY AIR TO PUSH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST CONCERNING,
STRONG WEST WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE
SANDHILLS AS WELL, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 TO 55 MILES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE. THIS LOOKS TO LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS
THURSDAY, AND POINTS TOWARDS A VERY CONCERNING SETUP FOR LARGE AND
RAPID FIRE SPREAD. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AND
FUTURE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-206-208-210.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
FIRE WEATHER...BROWN/NMJ
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