753
FXUS63 KLBF 082349
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
649 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING
IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ON THURSDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG WEST WINDS AND VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
TONIGHT, WESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL PERSIST, HELPING
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED, WITH LOWS FROM 35 TO 40. HUMIDITY
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT FROM 60 TO 65 PERCENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH, REACHING THE NE/SD BORDER BY DAYBREAK.
MONDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
U.S. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NE (INCLUDING THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES), WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST. HIGHS
THERE WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MUCH WARMER
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NE. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES FROM 14 TO 19C, AND A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WIND,
HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS, WHERE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 11 PERCENT WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO
CREATE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
MONDAY NIGHT, AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER FROM 45 TO AROUND 50 NORTH, TO THE MID
50 TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MT AND
EASTERN WY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS BY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
A POSITIVELY TILTED H7 TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH POPS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AT 60 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NE, FORECAST QPFS ARE ONLY FROM AROUND 0.05 INCH OR
LESS. AT THIS TIME, ANY SNOWFALL THAT DEVELOPS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTFUL, WITH ONLY A DUSTING TO A HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.
COOLER WEDNESDAY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. A NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 30 MPH. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY, A BRIEF, STRONG WARMUP INTO THE 70S. A TIGHT H7 GRADIENT
AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. WINDY WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY, WITH SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
FORECASTING A 40 PERCENT OR GREATER PROBABILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER OCCURRING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S FAR NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 70S
FAR SOUTHWEST. 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AT WHICH TIME
SOME MODEST LLWS CONCERNS SHOULD DEVELOP. THESE WILL END PRIOR
TO DAWN WITH INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 KNOTS. SOME SIGNALS EXIST FOR EVEN STRONGER GUSTS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA, WITH CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY, AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...
MONDAY...A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA
(ZONES 204, 206, 208, AND 210). SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN OVER EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH
ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WESTERLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM, WITH A THERMAL RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MOVING IN, HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD QUICKLY PLUMMET AND REACH CRITICAL VALUES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NUDGED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID 70S AND
LOWER 80S AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. HUMIDITY
LEVELS FALLING BELOW 15% FOR MANY LOCATIONS APPEARS LIKELY. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS,
ESPECIALLY GARDEN COUNTY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH COMBINE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS
NEAR 10 ABOVE. DESPITE COOLER HIGHS FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY COULD REACH 15 PERCENT ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS.
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY,
WITH INCREASING CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THESE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DRY
AIR TO PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST CONCERNING, STRONG WEST WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE SANDHILLS AS WELL, WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 45 TO 55 MILES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THIS POINTS
TOWARDS A VERY CONCERNING SETUP FOR LARGE AND RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AND FUTURE FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR NEZ204-206-208-210.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROWN/ROBERG
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
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