020
FNUS53 KLBF 190916
FWFLBF
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
416 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
DISCUSSION
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MARCH-RELATIVE EXTREME HEAT,
DRY AIR, AND GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOP EACH DAY.
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY FOR ZONE 204. HIGHS CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S FOR THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 10-15%. LIMITING THE CONCERN
SOMEWHAT WILL BE MARGINAL WINDS AS LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS GREATEST MAGNITUDE GUSTS REMAIN NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS ALIGNS WITH A RETREATING H7 SPEED MAX
SHOWN BY ALL DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
MIXING BUT RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN OUR
WESTERN ZONES. AT THIS TIME, NO CHANGES TO THURSDAY HEADLINES WILL
BE MADE BUT CONCERNS WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN OBSERVED RECENT
DAYS. EXPECT POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY WITH PEAK VALUES ONLY IN THE
40-60% RANGE HEADING INTO FRIDAY.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE THE IMPRESSIVE HEAT WAVE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
THREATENING RECORDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SLIGHT INCREASES IN
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND ALONG
THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THE LATTER OF THESE LOCATIONS IS
UNLIKELY TO SEE CRITICAL HUMIDITY LEVELS MET WHILE 10-15% VALUES
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN OCCUR SOUTH OF AN ALLIANCE TO NORTH PLATTE TO
BROKEN BOW LINE. FOR NOW, NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE
WEAK WINDS AND LIMITED SIGNAL FROM HIGHER PERCENTILE OUTPUTS FROM
THE NBM. THAT SAID, ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE LIKELY SUPPORTING EFFICIENT
BURNING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT SIMILAR POOR
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WITH PEAK VALUES ONLY IN THE 45-70% RANGE
HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY IS THE DAY TO WATCH AS RIDGE BREAKDOWN WILL BE IN FULL
SWING. RECENT GAPS IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE OUTPUT ARE BEGINNING
TO NARROW WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT RECORD BREAKING
HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. A DRYLINE FEATURE TRAILING A PASSING
LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL HUMIDITY WITH WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN SEEING CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS
HIGHEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 (NORTH PLATTE TO VALENTINE LINE) WITH
DECREASING CONFIDENCE TO THE EAST OWING TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS. AFTER CAREFUL COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, OPTED TO ISSUE A FAIRLY RARE PERIOD 5 WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT NOT ONLY THE DAYTIME CONCERNS BUT INCREASING WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY. TIMING IS BEGINNING TO FAVOR THE
EVENING HOURS WITH POST FRONTAL WINDS OF 30+ MPH LIKELY AND UP TO
45 MPH POSSIBLE. FOR THIS REASON, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
CONTINUE BEYOND MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. REFINEMENTS IN
TIMING ARE LIKELY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THOUGH MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS
OVERSPREADS THE REGION, CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MIXING FROM STRONG
WINDS SHOULD PREVENT HUMIDITY FROM CLIMBING ABOVE 70% FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, POTENTIALLY EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
SANDHILLS.
NEZ204-192330-
EASTERN PANHANDLE/CRESCENT LAKE NWR-
316 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........11 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL UNTIL 1200, THEN 2000-6800 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST UP TO 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-5800 FT AGL UNTIL 2400, THEN 300-600 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........13 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1400 FT AGL UNTIL 1200, THEN 2000-7700 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
SUNDAY
MUCH COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
WEDNESDAY
WARMER. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S.
NEZ210-192330-
FRENCHMAN BASIN-
416 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026 /316 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026/
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........11 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL UNTIL 1200, THEN 1700-6400 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-5200 FT AGL UNTIL 2400, THEN 400-600 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........12 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL UNTIL 1200, THEN 1800-7000 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
SUNDAY
MUCH COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.
WEDNESDAY
WARMER. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS
AROUND 90.
NEZ206-192330-
SANDHILLS/VALENTINE NWR/NEBRASKA NATIONAL FOREST-
416 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026 /316 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026/
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........14 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL UNTIL 1200, THEN 2600-7000 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST UP TO 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-5600 FT AGL UNTIL 2400, THEN 300-600 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........17 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1600 FT AGL UNTIL 1200, THEN 2700-7800 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
SUNDAY
MUCH COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY
WARMER. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S.
NEZ219-192330-
LOESS PLAINS-
416 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........12 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL UNTIL 1200, THEN 2000-6300 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST UP TO 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-5300 FT AGL UNTIL 2400, THEN 400-600 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........11 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1500 FT AGL UNTIL 1200, THEN 2000-7000 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
SUNDAY
MUCH COOLER. BREEZY. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
TUESDAY
WARMER. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY
WARMER. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S.
NEZ208-192330-
NIOBRARA VALLEY/FORT NIOBRARA NWR/SAMUEL R MCKELVIE NATIONAL
FOREST-
416 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026 /316 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026/
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........17 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL UNTIL 1200, THEN 2100-6500 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-3800 FT AGL UNTIL 2400, THEN 300-500 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 1200, THEN 2900-8000 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
SUNDAY
MUCH COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 60.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S.
WEDNESDAY
WARMER. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S.
NEZ209-192330-
LOUP RIVERS BASIN-
416 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL UNTIL 1200, THEN 2300-6900 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST UP TO 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-5800 FT AGL UNTIL 2400, THEN 300-500 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........17 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL UNTIL 1200, THEN 2600-7000 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
SUNDAY
MUCH COOLER. BREEZY. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY
WARMER. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S.
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