947
FXUS63 KLBF 231700
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1200 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL GUST TO 30 MPH TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGS
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT WILL
STEADILY WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES,
GUSTY WINDS, AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES MAY INTRODUCE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
TODAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SUPPORTS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN (15-20 POPS), MOST MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN DRY,
INCLUDING THE HREF ENSEMBLE, THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A DRIER SOUNDING
BELOW 650MB. FAIRLY SATURATED ABOVE HOWEVER, AND EXPECTED A CLOUDY
SKY IN THE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.
DID NOT ADJUST THE NBM FORECAST HIGHS TODAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS AND A GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND THIS WILL LIMIT THE WARMUP.
HIGHS ARE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST AND 60 TO 65 WEST.
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE STRONG AND QUITE GUSTY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10MB ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45
ARE EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 83, AND 20 TO 30 MPH TO THE EAST. WITH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLING TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 183,
THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON, DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE A NEAR CRITICAL THREAT IN THE HWO AND PARTNER
DSS PACKETS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.
THE BURN SCAR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL GARDEN COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST
ARTHUR COUNTY COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING DUST, AS THE SANDY
SOIL WAS EXPOSED FROM THE RECENT LARGE GRASS FIRE AND HIGH WINDS.
TONIGHT, SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S,
WITH SOME UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WY AND MT. A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION, AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. THIS WILL BRING A WESTERLY WIND TO
AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
THE EAST. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY GUSTY, UP TO 15 TO 20
MPH. HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTH, AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S
SOUTHWEST, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 15 TO AROUND
20 PERCENT. THEREFORE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183.
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS/WESTERN NEBRASKA. MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AIRMASS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE POOR AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT WEST OF HIGHWAY
83.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA,
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST, IT WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO
RIDGE BREAKDOWN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE, A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
BEFORE THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL, ANOMALOUSLY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, COMBINED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINATION WILL SET UP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THESE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SUGGESTING
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. IN FACT, THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CHALLENGE AND LIKELY BREAK DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS THESE POTENTIAL RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVERTAKE THE REGION, EXPECT LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE REGION, GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AND LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS, INTRODUCING NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES, ESPECIALLY WINDS AND
GUSTS, TO DETERMINE WHETHER FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
INCREASING WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT DOES BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT AS WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW GENERALLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST
ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN, BUT REMAIN CONSISTENT AT 0 PERCENT
FOR ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES REMAIN
COOLER ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
THOUGH SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MAY STILL REACH THE MID
70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THURSDAY. THOUGH
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, LACK OF
PRECIPITATION AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS MAY LEAVE AT LEAST ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONCERNS.
MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDING IN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 50S FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING TO THE 60S BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY CLIMB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. THIS MAY USHER IN YET MORE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KTS. WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 35 KTS. SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN WITH CEILINGS AROUND 20000
FT AGL. LOOK FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 25000 FT AGL PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
FORECAST HIGHS VS RECORD (YEAR OF LAST OCCURRENCE)
WEDNESDAY 03/25
NORTH PLATTE 88/84 (1907)
VALENTINE 83/85 (1993)
BROKEN BOW 87/83 (2004, 1956, 1908)
IMPERIAL 92/85 (1907)
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...BUTTLER
CLIMATE...RICHIE
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