184
FXUS63 KLBF 241126
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MUCH
WARMER HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO TIE OR BREAK
RECORDS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND
GUSTS.
- A BRIEF PAUSE TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
INTRODUCING MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
TODAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO WY AND MT. A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION, AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SWRN NE. THIS WILL BRING A WESTERLY
WIND TURNING NORTHWEST TO AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE EAST. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY GUSTY, UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. NBM HIGHS
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL, TO 80 TO 85
SOUTHWEST LOOK IN LINE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND RANGE WITHIN THE
LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE. THESE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES,
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLING TO AS LOW AS 15 TO AROUND 20 PERCENT, AND
GUSTY WINDS, WILL CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST
OF HIGHWAY 61, WHILE ELEVATED TO THE EAST.
TONIGHT, A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE POOR AT 55
TO 65 PERCENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
WEDNESDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS MT AND ND.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TO NEAR 998MB IN EASTERN WY, AS
WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH AT TIMES. GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. NUDGED NBM HIGHS UP A DEGREE WITH LOW TO MID 80S
NORTHEAST, AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THESE
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TIE OR BREAK THE EXISTING RECORD HIGHS. WINDS
INCREASED TO NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE. WITH LOWEST RH 12 TO 18
PERCENT, GUSTY WINDS AND RECORD HIGHS, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LOW, THERE IS SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS, WITH LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL. THIS IS SHOWN BY THE NAM, GFS, AND HRRR. A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARD DAYBREAK. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
BE POOR AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MAY STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE, REMAINING JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, VERY
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, THE STRONG WINDS AND GUSTS ALONE WILL BE CAUSE ENOUGH
FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE 50S. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN CALMER, WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PAUSE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE PAUSE WILL BE BRIEF, AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH
THE RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, WILL BEGIN TO SEE A STEADY
INCREASE OF TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT, HIGHS MAY BREAK BACK INTO THE 80S AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ALSO DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FORECAST TRENDS FOR WIND, BUT AS FOR
NOW, WINDS APPEAR GUSTY FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD BRING AT LEAST DAILY CHANCES FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS STARTING AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH MULTIPLE BREAKS IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS TO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY, MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH. WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THE EVENING, REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE TODAY, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT. WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT
TODAY, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 MPH, BUT THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
CONCERNS.
AS FOR WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CHALLENGE AND
POTENTIALLY BREAK DAILY RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY EVEN LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES, WITH MINIMUM
VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT. BETTER MIXING
IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER WINDS. THIS MAY
LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
FORECAST HIGHS VS RECORD (YEAR OF LAST OCCURRENCE)
WEDNESDAY 03/25
* NORTH PLATTE 90/84 (1907)
VALENTINE 85/85 (1993)
BROKEN BOW 88/83 (2004, 1956, 1908)
IMPERIAL 92/85 (1907)
* IF RECORDS ARE HIT WEDNESDAY, IT WILL BE THE 8TH DAY SO
FAR THIS YEAR A DAILY RECORD HIGH HAS BEEN TIED OR BROKEN AT NORTH
PLATTE. THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE 15TH DAILY RECORD HIGH SET AT NORTH PLATTE
SINCE NOVEMBER 1, 2025!
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...RICHIE
FIRE WEATHER...RICHIE
CLIMATE...BUTTLER
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