861
FXUS63 KLBF 242027
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
327 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO A COMBINATION OF RECORD TEMPERATURES, VERY
LOW HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WEST WINDS.
- ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING,
BRINGING INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- AFTER BRIEFLY COOLER HIGHS ON FRIDAY (50S), TEMPERATURES
RETURN BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS COULD BRING A RETURN OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL REVOLVE AROUND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE CONTAINED IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW.
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS THE SANDHILLS, WITH SOUTH
WINDS EAST OF HWY 83 AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. VERY LOW HUMIDITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE 20S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST
LIMITING FACTOR.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW,
AS RIDGE BREAKDOWN BEGINS ALOFT. AS THIS OCCURS, A WEAK SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AND INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH STRENGTHENING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THIS INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST HIGHS
CONSIDERABLY TOMORROW, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA APPROACHING DAILY RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE, THIS
WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO AS LOW AS 11 TO 20 PERCENT AREA
WIDE. AS THE WEST WINDS STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. THIS COMBINATION
OF WARM, DRY, AND WINDY WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
BY LATE TOMORROW EVENING, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES
ALOFT, WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS LEADING TO A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS ALOFT TO SUGGEST THE INCREASING LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS,
AND SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THIS INSTABILITY BEING CO-LOCATED WITHIN THE
HAIL GROWTH ZONE ALSO SUGGEST A THREAT FOR CHARGE SEPARATION IN
ANY SHOWERS. THOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE THREAT AT THIS TIME, LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND THIS POINTS TOWARDS A
THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
IMPACTS. THIS IS VERY CONCERNING GIVEN THE BACKGROUND DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT, AND TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT FOR GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS, AS DEEP
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE INDICATED IN THE LOWEST
FEW KILOMETERS.
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH
THE AREA AND LEAD TO A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH.
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WITH ITS PASSAGE AND STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY GUSTS ACROSS THE
AREA. IN FACT, NORTHERLY GUSTS OF UP TO 45 TO 50 MILES PER HOUR CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S. DESPITE THIS, HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT ARE STILL EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME, WEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE
CONCERNS, THOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
UPPER RIDGING THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATING
BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
UNFORTUNATELY, WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE LEAD UP TO
THIS, INCREASING FIRE CONCERNS LOOK PROBABLE YET AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE EAST OF HWY 83 AND WEST-
NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF HWY 83 THIS AFTERNOON, AT 5 TO 10KTS.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING
WESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING, AT 10 TO 15KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, AS
WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20
MILES PER HOUR ACROSS THE AREA, LIMITING ANY CRITICAL CONCERNS
TODAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, SOME 30 TO 35
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY DRY AIR AND
LEAD TO CRITICAL HUMIDITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS
ALSO STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, LEADING TO GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MILES PER HOUR. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS.
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NOW, THESE SHOWERS COULD PRESENT A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS.
A COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING,
LEADING TO A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH WITH ITS PASSAGE.
STRONG NORTHERLY GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE AS WELL, WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 TO 50 MILES PER HOUR EXPECTED. THESE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER BRIEFLY COOLER HIGHS ON FRIDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
LOOKS TO BRING A RETURN OF INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, NO WETTING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
FORECAST HIGHS VS RECORD (YEAR OF LAST OCCURRENCE)
WEDNESDAY 03/25
* NORTH PLATTE 90/84 (1907)
VALENTINE 85/85 (1993)
BROKEN BOW 88/83 (2004, 1956, 1908)
IMPERIAL 92/85 (1907)
* IF RECORDS ARE HIT WEDNESDAY, IT WILL BE THE 8TH DAY SO
FAR THIS YEAR A DAILY RECORD HIGH HAS BEEN TIED OR BROKEN AT NORTH
PLATTE. THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE 15TH DAILY RECORD HIGH SET AT NORTH PLATTE
SINCE NOVEMBER 1, 2025!
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM
CDT /10 AM MDT/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
FIRE WEATHER...BROWN
CLIMATE...BROWN
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