203
FXUS63 KLBF 251125
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY OVERNIGHT.
- ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, BRINGING A RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
- TEMPERATURES COOL OFF BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY, GIVING A BRIEF BREAK
FROM FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, BY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES
WARM AGAIN, INTRODUCING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TODAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW AND TRANSITIONS EAST
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA TONIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE/HIGH SYSTEM
BREAKING DOWN TODAY, VERY WARM AIR WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE
ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE
LIKELY TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE NBM WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM
ENSEMBLES. THIS BOOSTED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE OPERATIONAL
NBM AND BROUGHT TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
THAT BEING SAID, FORECAST HIGHS OF 87, 89 AND 91 FOR BROKEN BOW,
NORTH PLATTE, AND IMPERIAL WOULD SET RECORDS TODAY. VALENTINE FALLS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHORT ON THEIR RECORD WITH THEIR FORECAST HIGH
OF 83. MORE DETAILS ON RECORD POTENTIAL ARE BELOW IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION. WITH THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, MINIMUM RH THIS
AFTERNOON FALLS OFF TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AND THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
REALIZE WIND GUSTS ARE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR RFW CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS, FEEL THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY WINDS COULD ECLIPSE THE CURRENT FORECAST. WITH THE
INHERITED RFW TODAY, DO NOT SEE ENOUGH OF A DECREASE IN WINDS TO
WARRANT CANCELLATION OF FIRE HEADLINES. FOR FURTHER DETAILS, SEE THE
FIRE SECTION BELOW. LATER THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH ENTERING NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE, WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING. AS THIS INSTABILITY ENTERS
THE PANHANDLE, THE LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO DEVELOP ISOLATED
CONVECTION. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
MID LEVELS. IF CONVECTION WERE TO TAKE OFF, AM CONCERNED ABOUT DRY
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AS THE MOISTURE PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO
10000 FT AGL IS VERY DRY. THIS WOULD MEAN A DRY LIGHTNING THREAT AND
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD LOW END POPS FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE OUTLOOK FOR MEASURABLE
PCPN. IS DOWNRIGHT LOW. HOWEVER, I DID MENTION THE THREAT FOR
THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS THIS
EVENING. THIS CORRELATES WITH THE LATEST SWODY1 WHICH HAS GENERAL
THUNDER HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS AREA. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING, APPROACH NORTHERN NEBRASKA
AROUND 12Z AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY CHANGE DIRECTION TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE. GUST POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS IN THE 30
TO 40 MPH RANGE, THEN DIMINISHES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA, TO AROUND 70 IN FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THE NBM BRINGS POST FRONTAL POPS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT BELIEVE THESE POPS ARE STILL TOO GENEROUS.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE ALOFT, GENERALLY ABOVE
650 MB, THEY ALSO SUGGEST A VERY DRY LAYER, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 850-
700MB. IF ANY PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL THROUGH THAT DRY LAYER, NO
DOUBT THAT IT WOULD EVAPORATE WELL BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND,
RESULTING IN VIRGA. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, EVEN WITH THESE POPS, QPF REMAINS AT
ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN SOME OF THE MORE "AGGRESSIVE" GUIDANCE
BRINGS A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. WOULD ANTICIPATE MOSTLY COOL,
CLOUDY CONDITIONS, BUT NO PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR FRIDAY, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION. CALMER WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A BRIEF PAUSE IN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THAT PAUSE IS SHORT LIVED AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REDEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
BRING A STEADY WARMING TREND STARTING ON SATURDAY LASTING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SATURDAY CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WITH THIS WEEK'S TEMPERATURES,
THESE FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF NBM GUIDANCE,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES. IN FACT,
THE SET UP LOOKS ALMOST THE SAME AS THE DAYS WE BROKE 90 DEGREES.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM UP
OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE
90S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AS THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND, AGAIN EXPECT THAT
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES DROP UNDER 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. WINDS APPEAR GUSTY ENOUGH EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TO BRING AT LEAST ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
EACH DAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP MONITORING FORECAST TRENDS DURING THIS
PERIOD TO DETERMINE WHETHER ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
BE NEEDED. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE NBM DETERMINISTIC DOES APPEAR TO
BE ON THE "LOW" SIDE OF GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW, SO MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE EXTENDED FORECAST COMES INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.
BY TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES, BRINGING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT COOL OFF FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IN TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS ENSEMBLES,
HAVE BEEN POINTING TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY EARLY
APRIL, AND THIS DOES SEEM GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS GUIDANCE
COMES INTO CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS THIS
MORNING, EXPECT WINDS TO TAKE ON A WESTERLY DIRECTION, BECOMING
GUSTY BY LATE MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST UNTIL THIS
EVENING, AT WHICH TIME, A BRIEF DECREASE TO VARIABLE WINDS IS
EXPECTED. LATE TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO TRACK INTO THE
REGION, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THOUGH
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, EXPECT CEILINGS TO
REMAIN VFR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM RH
WILL REACH 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, HOWEVER,
THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS MAINLY DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE LOWEST 10000 FT AGL OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BEING VERY DRY, THERE IS A THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING WILL WANE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
HOWEVER, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AN ABRUPT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
TO THE NORTH AND GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE IS
EXPECTED. THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING BEGINS LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES INTO LATE MORNING THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, SUNDAY,
MONDAY, AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE 70S SATURDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 80S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
FORECAST HIGHS VS RECORD (YEAR OF LAST OCCURRENCE)
TODAY 03/25
* NORTH PLATTE 89/84 (1907)
VALENTINE 83/85 (1993)
BROKEN BOW 87/83 (2004, 1956, 1908)
IMPERIAL 91/85 (1907)
* IF RECORDS ARE HIT WEDNESDAY, IT WILL BE THE 8TH DAY SO
FAR THIS YEAR A DAILY RECORD HIGH HAS BEEN TIED OR BROKEN AT NORTH
PLATTE. THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE 15TH DAILY RECORD HIGH SET AT NORTH PLATTE
SINCE NOVEMBER 1, 2025!
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 11
AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...RICHIE
FIRE WEATHER...BUTTLER
CLIMATE...BUTTLER
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