167
FXUS63 KLBF 260532
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1232 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING, BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND
BRINGS STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN FOR FRIDAY, BEFORE ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS QUICKLY RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A RETURN OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- A PATTERN SHIFT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD BRING A
RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
REMAINS LOW FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WITH LOWER 80S OBSERVED FURTHER NORTHEAST. THIS
HAS BROKEN RECORD HIGHS AT BROKEN BOW, IMPERIAL, AND NORTH PLATTE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS IS COMBINING WITH VERY DRY AIR AND GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS AND IS PROMOTING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, EXPECT THE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
TO CONTINUE TO THROUGH SUNSET, ALONG WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY. LIMITED
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT, ONLY AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THOUGH A
BRIEF REPRIEVE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT, ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO A THREAT FOR HIGH BASED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SANDHILLS. CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING REMAINS VERY LOW, THOUGH STILL CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT
GIVEN AT LEAST MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALOFT. THE GREATER THREAT
WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, WITH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
THREAT FOR A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO BE MIXED DOWNWARDS
OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW FOR NOW, BUT WOULD
BE IMPACTFUL GIVEN THE VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY.
BY TOMORROW MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH, ALONG WITH INCREASING COLD
ADVECTION. NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
VALUES HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON, GENERALLY ABOVE 30 PERCENT. THIS
WILL LIMIT FIRE CONCERNS SOMEWHAT, DESPITE THE CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT, AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 20S FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ON FRIDAY,
WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
50S, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WEAKER WINDS WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
UPPER RIDGING THEN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATING
BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
SATURDAY LOOKS CONCERNING WITH AGAIN AN OVERLAP OF WARM HIGHS, VERY
LOW HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE EVEN WARMER THAN
SATURDAY, WITH AGAIN A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS. IT APPEARS CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY RETURN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A PATTERN SHIFT, WHICH IS EXPECTED BY MIDDLE
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR NOW, THOUGH THIS LOOKS
TO AT LEAST BRING SOME THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AS
TROUGHING FINALLY ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN US. WITH THE
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT, AND THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AS LOWER CEILINGS TRACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING, BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS. A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL
BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND BRING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
THAT GUSTS REMAIN INTO THE EVENING, WITH STRONGER GUSTS DIMINISHING
AROUND MIDNIGHT. ONE OTHER THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE LLWS
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS ALOFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER, THESE CONCERNS
ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO STOP AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE
AREA.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...RICHIE
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