073
FXUS63 KLBF 261120
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING,
AT WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH, KEEPING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A BRIEF COOL OFF IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS WEEKEND, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ALSO INCREASE.
- POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM,
BUT THIS MAY BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEBRASKA AROUND 09 TO 12Z
THURSDAY, APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AROUND 15Z. THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT IN FRONTAL TIMING WITH TONIGHT'S 00Z HRRR AND
00Z NAM SOLNS. COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT'S MODEL RUNS, FRONTAL
TIMING SEEMS TO BE FASTER WITH TONIGHT'S MODEL SOLNS COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT'S. WITH THE FASTER FRONTAL TIMING, WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND BROUGHT HIGHS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE MAV GUIDANCE AND 18Z MET GUIDANCE. BELIEVE THE 00Z MET
GUIDANCE TONIGHT IS WAY COOL WITH ITS HIGH OF 53 FOR NORTH
PLATTE. THE PREVIOUS MET GUIDANCE, HAD A HIGH OF 63 THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SECONDARY FRONT,
WEAK FORCING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND
FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT
FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE NBM ENSEMBLES TONIGHT AS THEY
ARE INDICATING A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PCPN
THURSDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT, COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO
THE DAKOTAS. VERY DRY AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH
THE LOWER 50S. WITH THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE MINIMUM RH WILL
REACH 15 TO 20 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
MINIMAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
USHER IN A RETURN OF WARMING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LATEST FORECAST CYCLE, CONTINUING TO SEE
TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER THIS WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY, MOST AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 REACH INTO THE 70S, WITH 60S GENERALLY
TO THE EAST. WITH THE WARMER CONDITIONS, EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL, WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. GIVEN
ALL THIS SETTING UP, EXPECTING AT LEAST ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, AS ANOMALOUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. STILL, THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC REMAINS ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE, WITH THIS
CURRENT FORECAST NEAR THE 10TH PERCENTILE. FOR REFERENCE, THE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES PUTS HIGHS IN THE 90S (90 TO
94 FOR NORTH PLATTE, SPECIFICALLY). GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS 500MB
HEIGHTS, 850MB TEMPERATURES, A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE EFI/SOT FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES, AND THE NBM REMAINING AROUND THE 10TH PERCENTILE,
BELIEVE THAT HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE QUITE LIKELY TO BE WARMER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. IN FACT, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS TREND
WARMER, BRINGING FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 90S BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
AGAIN BRING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
REGION, WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 PERCENT. STILL
SOME QUESTION ON THE STRENGTH OF WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO
WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SUNDAY FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
CONDITIONS REMAIN WARM AND DRY ON MONDAY, BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY
BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MOSTLY DRY, AROUND A 20 TO 25 PERCENT AFTERNOON HUMIDITY,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 20 KNOTS. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
TRENDS, ESPECIALLY AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO CONSENSUS. AT THIS TIME,
MONDAY MAY BE YET ANOTHER DAY TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AS A LARGER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON
TUESDAY, STILL EXPECT SOME LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MID WEEK
FORECAST. FIRST, FOR TEMPERATURES, THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WHETHER WE FAVOR WARMER OR COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FOR REFERENCE, THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 25TH AND
75TH PERCENTILE IN THE NBM FOR FORECAST HIGHS SHOWS A 25 TO 30
DEGREE DISCREPANCY, LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
HIGHS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HAS BEEN A SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS, BUT TIMING REMAINS THE MAJOR QUESTION. AGAIN, MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM, SO WILL KEEP MONITORING TRENDS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, SO THIS WILL BE A TIME PERIOD WORTH PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION
TO.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EFFECTIVE TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS
STRATUS TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON POTENTIALLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN SEEING
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW END VFR AT THIS TIME. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. BY LATE
MORNING, EXPECTING GUSTS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH LATE EVENING,
EVENTUALLY SEEING GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...RICHIE
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