386
FXUS63 KLBF 271143
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
643 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE APPEARING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY,
AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND
LOW HUMIDITY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING A
RETURN OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY CONTINUE TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND ANY AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED REMAINS VERY LOW FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 117 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN STORY
WITH LIKELY SEEING CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SATURDAY.
FIRST TODAY, A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN DUE TO THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS TODAY
DO NOT COINCIDE, AS THE GUSTIER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
THIS MORNING, THEN DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON DURING THE PERIOD OF
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. DUE TO THESE REASONS, NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES SHOULD BE NEEDED.
BY TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. A LEEWARD SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS WYOMING
AND COLORADO. AS THIS OCCURS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO QUICKLY TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HUMIDITY RECOVERY
TONIGHT WILL BE POOR TO SAY THE LEAST, WITH MAX HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 35-45% RANGE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
LIKELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN, VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO AROUND 45
MPH. AS THE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME BY AFTERNOON, WINDS
DO GO DOWN SOME FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. AS HUMIDITY
VALUES DROP INTO THE 12-18% RANGE BY AFTERNOON, WE WILL CONTINUE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WINDS DO GO DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. HUMIDITY RECOVERY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
ONLY BE MODERATE WITH MAX VALUES OF 55-65% EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
EACH DAY AS WELL.
ON SUNDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE NAM HAS COOLER
H85 TEMPERATURES AND HAS SURFACE WINDS BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
GFS IS WARMER AND KEEP WINDS NORTHWEST. KEPT TEMPERATURES AS
FORECAST BY THE NBM FROM AROUND 75 NORTH CENTRAL TO 80 TO 85 SOUTH.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 MPH EAST, AND NORTHWEST 10
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST. LOWEST RH IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 TO
15 PERCENT WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW. THIS WILL BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL,
WITH WIND GUSTS THE LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL BE MILD FROM 40 TO
45.
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS IDAHO INTO WESTERN MONTANA, BRINGING A STRONG THERMAL
RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH H85
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS 25C. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY WESTERLY UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FURTHER EAST 10 TO 20 MPH.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 PERCENT
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS, WITH
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT,
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS 18Z TUESDAY. COULD SEE A
FEW POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CURRENTLY POPS
ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR THESE AREAS, AND NBM PROBABILITY OF GREATER
THAN 0.01 INCH IS ONLY 20 TO 25 PERCENT. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE
SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT, AND THEREFORE THE NBM FORECASTS HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS SOUTH TO
LOWER 20S NORTH, FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS, GEM, AND ECMWF WRT TIMING AND LOCATION.
WHILE AT LEAST LOW CHANCES (20 TO 40 PERCENT) EXIST, THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIMEFRAME IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA PER THE 00Z GFS, AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER THE GEM ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF IS LARGELY
DRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE NBM PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A TENTH
OF AN INCH IS FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND ANY AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
REMAINS VERY LOW FOR NOW. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, BUT
THIS COULD AT LEAST LEAD TO A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE DAILY THREATS
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY,
WITH 50S AND 60S THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT KLBF, A LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND, WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS 15Z-19Z,
THEN LIGHT WINDS 10KTS OR LESS INTO THIS EVENING. A SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL INCREASE LATE EVENING, WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS AFTER 06Z.
AT KVTN, WINDS WILL REMAIN 12KTS OR LESS TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE BY 06Z WITH GUSTS
THROUGH 12Z TO 25KTS. LLWS ALSO FORECAST BY 10Z SATURDAY AT
20050KT. SKIES FEW-SCT250 EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
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