451
FXUS63 KLBF 281135
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
635 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AND HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AS
LOW AS 13 TO 18 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL AREAS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIALLY MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
HIGHS OF 85 TO 90 COMBINE WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY.
- COOLER WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND ANY AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED REMAINS VERY LOW FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN STORY,
WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND ELEVATED TO NEAR-
CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A LEEWARD SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEEPENING ACROSS
WYOMING AND COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUICKLY TIGHTENING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
NEBRASKA. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN, VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES SOME THIS AFTERNOON, AND WINDS DO DECREASE
SOME FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. AS HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP INTO THE 13-18% RANGE BY AFTERNOON, THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS DECOUPLE SOME
TONIGHT, BUT SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE POOR FOR
AREAS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA (ONLY AROUND 45%) SOMEWHAT
BETTER RECOVERY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHERE VALUES
AROUND 70% ARE EXPECTED.
A VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE SUNDAY, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL ALSO
BE FLIRTING WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
SOAR INTO THE MID 80S WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 10-15% DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL BE JUST LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE NEEDED. WINDS THOUGH HAVE BEEN
STRONGER THAN MODELS/GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THIS WILL BE
TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION AND IT'S POSSIBLE A RED FLAG WARNING MAY
BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS IDAHO INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA, WHILE DOWNSTREAM, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BRING A STRONG THERMAL
RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH H85
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS 25C. NBM FORECAST HIGHS 85 TO 90 MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO BE EVEN WARMER, AS THE
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE BOTH ARE FORECASTING A HIGH OF 94! FORECAST
HIGHS OF 88 AT NORTH PLATTE AND 86 DEGREES AT VALENTINE WOULD BREAK
THE CURRENT RECORD BY 1 DEGREE, WHILE THE FORECAST HIGH OF 88
DEGREES AT IMPERIAL WOULD TIE THE RECORD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN FROM SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH OGALLALA, WITH
WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH FOR ALL AREAS TO THE EAST.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR UP
TO A 7 HOUR PERIOD DURING THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO BE REACHED FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83, WITH NEAR
CRITICAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING, WITH A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND 20 TO
30 MPH OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CURRENTLY POPS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 40
PERCENT, ALTHOUGH NBM PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.01 INCH IS ONLY
30 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS NORTH OF I80. SOUNDINGS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH THAT LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE STRONG, WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS H85 TEMPERATURES FALL TO 0C ACROSS
NORTHERN NE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S DESPITE THE WINDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE MUCH COOLER FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S MOST AREAS WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 20 TO 30 PERCENT, FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS UP TO 12 HOURS FASTER AND MOST NOTABLE WITH THIS FEATURE, WHILE
THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN
MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION IS LOW, BASED ON TIMING DIFFERENCES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST.
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE GFS, GEM, AND ECMWF WRT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. LOW CHANCES (20 TO
40 PERCENT) EXIST, WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SUPPORTED
SOMEWHAT BY THE 00Z GEM, AND ECMWF. THE NBM PROBABILITY OF AT
LEAST A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND ANY AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED REMAINS VERY LOW FOR NOW. THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
COULD PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MUCH NEEDED WETTING
MOISTURE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN COOL IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S, WITH MID 50S TO LOW 60S THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE OF CONCERN UNTIL 15Z AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 50KTS REMAIN OFF THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE,
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TO BELOW 10KTS BY
03Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
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