226
FXUS63 KLBF 282023
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
323 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY, FAVORING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, VERY LOW HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MONDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PLAYED A LARGE ROLE
IN AREA-WIDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GUSTS PEAKED AROUND
MIDDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 40-45 MPH AND SLIGHT DECREASES SINCE THEN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE MIDDLE 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S
CENTER AND EAST. THESE HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF FORECASTS SLIGHTLY AND
AS A RESULT HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE NOT FALLEN AS EXPECTED. EVEN SO,
THE STRONG WINDS AND HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS HAVE LED TO EXPANSIVE
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF
WIND GUSTS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LEE TROUGHING AND A
WEAK LOW EXTENDS EAST OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A
WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL NEARLY CLEAR THE AREA BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER MILD
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AND RANGE FROM
MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 MPH AND MODEST GUSTS APPROACHING
20 MPH BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT LINE.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH, WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAYTIME. A PLUME OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WITHIN THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL PROMOTE A CONSIDERABLE WARM UP WITH DRY AIR. NAEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS H7 AND H85 TEMPERATURES BOTH EXCEEDING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE BY EARLY IN THE DAY AND THESE WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES IN A FAVORABLE WARMING SETUP SUPPORT BOOSTING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR UPPER 80S SOUTH TO UPPER 70S
NORTH, CLOSER IN LINE WITH RECENT MAV GUIDANCE. THESE VALUES WILL
THREATEN CALENDAR DAY RECORDS. UNDER SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE CENTER STAGE. MORE
DETAILS PERTAINING TO THIS CAN BE FOUND BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
LIKELY RECORD HIGHS FORECAST. IN FACT, H7-H85 TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE CLIMO FOR LATE MARCH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY FOR
NOW, THOUGH INCREASING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AMPLE MIXING TO TAP INTO THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO POTENTIALLY EVEN THE LOW 90S AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY. THIS WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH VERY
LOW HUMIDITY, AS THE VERY DRY AIRMASS ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA
ALLOWS FOR MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. SOME
THREAT FOR EVEN SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY VALUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY IF TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARDS INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR
ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
SUSPECT THESE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS, WITH GUIDANCE LARGELY
UNDERPERFORMING WITH GUSTS NEAR DAILY IN THE RECENT RECORD WARM
PATTERN. THIS COMBINATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND FUTURE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED.
AS A SURFACE LOW EJECTS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA/FAR
NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SHARP WEST TO
NORTH WIND SHIFT, ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MILES PER HOUR AS INCREASING COLD ADVECTION PROMOTES AMPLE
MECHANICAL MIXING OVERNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT ALSO MARKS
THE END OF THE RECENT VERY WARM STRETCH, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE HIGHS THEN EXPECTED FOR MIDDLE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK AS WELL, THOUGH THIS REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR NOW. A LOOK AT NBM PROBABILITIES SHOWS BROAD
PROBABILITIES OF >0.10" ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEEK, THOUGH ONLY
PEAKING TO ~30-40% FOR THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS LARGELY
TIED TO THE EVOLUTION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES, WHICH BECOMES ESPECIALLY
TRUE BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW,
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AT LEAST LIMITED DROUGHT
RELIEF FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SPEEDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE
BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. A WIND SHIFT
LINE WILL ARRIVE AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH A FLIP TO THE
NORTHWEST AND SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS THEREAFTER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH 9PM CDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES
204, 206, 208, 209, 210, AND 219.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEYOND MID-
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER LINGERING GUSTS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL PROLONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHIFT OF WINDS IN THE 15-
20 MPH RANGE, POTENTIALLY PRIOR TO AND FOLLOWING PASSAGE. AT THIS
TIME, TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS APPROXIMATELY 3-7AM CDT FOR THE
SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND 7AM-11AM FOR AREAS TO THE
EAST. THE PERSISTENT WINDS TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WITH POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE
30S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST WITH MAXIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES OF
40-55% WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND UPWARDS OF 70% TO THE EAST.
SUNDAY...EXPANSIVE ELEVATED WITH POTENTIAL NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FAVORING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
DAYTIME. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WORK
DOWNSLOPE INTO ANOMALOUS WARMTH OFF THE SURFACE. THE RESULT IS VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES, UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL REACH 20-30F ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH AND
THREATEN DAILY RECORDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE INCOMING DRY AIR WILL
SUPPORT DEW POINTS HOLDING AROUND 20F AND WITH THE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES, HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 15% FOR AREAS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ZONES 204, 206, AND 209 IN ADDITION TO MOST IF
NOT ALL OF ZONES 210 AND 219. THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IS WIND
MAGNITUDES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW REASONABLE MIXING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS IS BENEATH A BELT
OF STRONGER H7 FLOW ROUGHLY 5K-6K FEET AGL. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WILL APPROACH THIS LEVEL DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL
SUPPORT GUSTS CLOSER TO 20-25 MPH. ELSEWHERE, GUST ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WEAKER GIVEN POORER MIXING AND MARGINAL WINDS OFF THE SURFACE. AT
THIS TIME, WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR
SOUTHERN ZONES 204 AND 206 AND ALL OF ZONES 210 AND 219. WILL NEED
TO EVALUATE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS FOR ANY INCREASES IN
WIND GUSTS BUT GIVEN HREF PROBABILITIES OF 30% FOR ALL LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF GARDEN COUNTY, WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY...WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE CROSSES THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL DRAW YET ANOTHER TROUGH OFF THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
A SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW BENEATH VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES (NAEFS AGAIN HINTING
AT H5-H7 TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE), EXPECT A HOT
DAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN FACT, THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR RECORD TEMPERATURES AT MANY CLIMATE SITES IN THE
REGION AND NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTING FURTHER INCREASES ARE NECESSARY
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING 90F CLIMB
ABOVE 50% FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. BELIEVE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY TOUCH THE LOWER 90S YET AGAIN, WHICH WILL
BREAK DAILY TEMPERATURES FOR MANY SITES AND THREATEN MONTHLY RECORD
HIGHS YET AGAIN. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BUT LIMITED IN SCOPE.
FOR NOW, BELIEVE THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. IT'S THESE AREAS WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS AND ANTICIPATED LOW HUMIDITY IN THE RECORD HEAT THAT
MAY REQUIRE HEADLINES IN THE COMING DAYS. ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND BRING AN ABRUPT
FLIP TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONGER GUSTS. SPEEDS
ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 30 MPH FOR ALL LOCATIONS AND APPROACH 45 MPH
FOR SOME FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE QUITE LOW SO WETTING RAINS
APPEAR UNLIKELY. ON TOP OF THIS, MODEST INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING. WILL
DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO INSERT THIS MENTION WHEN CONFIDENCE CAN
IMPROVE.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...NMJ
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