082
FXUS63 KLBF 291118
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
618 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AND HUMIDITY VALUES DROP. A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS WELL AS THE PANHANDLE.
- WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIALLY MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS OF 85 TO 90 ARE FORECAST.
- COOLER WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND ANY AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
STORY, WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MONDAY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
A VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE TODAY, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE
IN PLACES. WITH THE VERY DRY FUELS AND VERY WARM (NEAR RECORD)
HIGHS, HAVE OPTED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS WESTERN AND FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IT'S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THIS LOW WHERE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO DECREASE. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SHOW A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS POTENTIALLY OVER 30 MPH FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE, WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 10% BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH DRY FUELS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND DEEP MIXING, ANY
FIRE START HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GROW RAPIDLY AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST
OF HIGHWAY 183. IN FACT, THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
HUMIDITY GET MUCH ABOVE 45%.
ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURE DAY EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGHS
REACH 85 TO 90. WINDS ALOFT DO BECOME SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE. AGAIN, VERY DRY HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY. HIGH
BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NEAR-
CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.
A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND 20 TO 30 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
MUCH COOLER, WINDY AND MAINLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND MIDWEST. THE ECMWF AND GEM INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS 12 HOURS FASTER. THE GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDING BECOMES FIRMLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
LOCATION AND TIMING, CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE NBM
PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID IS ABOUT 50
PERCENT AT THIS TIME, SO THIS IS INCREASING ENCOURAGING THAT SOME
WETTING MOISTURE MAY OCCUR.
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CHANCE POPS THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPART SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND APPROACHING LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH.
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. IT APPEARS
THAT THE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN COOL IN THE MID 40S, WITH 50S
TO LOW 60S THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST TO 16KT FROM 17Z INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY AT THE LBF
AND KVTN TERMINALS, THEN LIGHT BELOW 10KT SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE POOR AT DAYBREAK, ONLY REACHING 45-65
PERCENT AND THE LOWEST VALUES OVER THE SANDHILLS INTO THE
PANHANDLE.
SUNDAY, VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WILL
PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS (FIRE ZONE 204) AND A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
(FIRE ZONE 210). HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 10 PERCENT AND
COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM UNTIL 7 PM MDT.
MONDAY, A RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURE DAY WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90.
WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY NEAR 10
PERCENT MAY SUPPORT CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND HEADLINES ACROSS
FIRE ZONE 204 WHICH WILL NEED CONSIDERED WITH LATER FORECASTS.
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO THE EAST WITH LOW HUMIDITY 10 TO 15
PERCENT AND A LIGHT WEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED. ALSO OF
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY. HIGH BASED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND BRINGS AN ABRUPT
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE EVENING AND NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND UP
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN,
MUCH LESS WETTING RAIN, REMAINS VERY LOW.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS FALLING BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CHANCES EXIST, FOLLOWED
BY SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME WETTING MOISTURE IS INCREASING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204-210.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
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