580
FXUS63 KLBF 291935
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
235 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL, POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A BETTER POTENTIAL BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH MONDAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST PUSHES A
WARM AIRMASS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20 TO 24 C RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO EASILY
RISE INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LATEST EFI
REMAINS HIGH (0.8 TO 0.95) WITH MARGINAL SOT (BETWEEN 0 AND 1)
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MORE EXTREME, POTENTIALLY RECORD-
BREAKING, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
OVER THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. SPEAKING OF RECORDS, RECORD HIGHS
CURRENTLY SIT AT 87, 85, 92, AND 88 AT NORTH PLATTE, VALENTINE,
BROKEN BOW, AND IMPERIAL RESPECTIVELY. IF TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE A
FEW MORE DEGREES, MOST OF THESE SITES WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
BREAK NEW RECORDS ON MONDAY. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL REMAIN
MILD IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT WHICH IS NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION, IF ANY
DEVELOPS, WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL, THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS LOW, BUT SOME DRY LIGHTNING MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. QPF WILL
BE MINIMAL, WITH LESS THAN 0.01 INCHES EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION. A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE 30S WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PINE RIDGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN ON
TUESDAY WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THIS MAY LIMIT SNOW
POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY AS PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN. HOWEVER,
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD, IN THE LOW TO MID 20S, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR ANY LIQUID PRECIP TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME,
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH
LESS THAN 1 INCH SOUTH OF I-80. BETWEEN THE SNOW AND RAIN,
NEARLY A QUARTER INCH (0.25) OF QPF IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING SOME
MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE RAIN AND SNOW POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION TO TURN TO A MOSTLY ALL RAIN EVENT. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME
STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE AND SANDHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT EITHER
TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. WINDS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET, BUT RETURN BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING. AGAIN, THE STRONGER WINDS WILL NOT IMPACT KLBF
OR KVTN. OTHERWISE, SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
RH VALUES DROP AND WINDS REMAIN STRONG. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 10 PERCENT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY GUSTING NEAR 25 MPH ALREADY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THESE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH BY LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, WHILE
WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, RH WILL ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR 40 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING DUE TO THESE STRONG WINDS, LOWER RH VALUES, AND CURED FUELS
READY TO BURN.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY AS
RH VALUES DROP AND WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO
BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE DROPPING BELOW
15 PERCENT. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE SANDHILLS. A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY
EVENING WILL BRING SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS WELL. THEREFORE, A
RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE
TO THESE STRONG WINDS, LOWER RH VALUES, AND CURED FUELS READY TO
BURN. OVERNIGHT RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION BRINGING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. QPF VALUES
REMAIN MINIMAL, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATING
RAINFALL, MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SOME
CONCERN WITH SOME DRY LIGHTNING WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-210.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ MONDAY TO 1 AM CDT
/MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ204-206-208-210.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
FIRE WEATHER...KULIK
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