465
FXUS63 KLBF 300634
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
134 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY, WITH RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS 850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELIHOOD OF 20 TO
24 DEGREE CELSIUS AND GOOD MIXING, HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, NEARING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS FOR RECORD
TEMPERATURES, NORTH PLATTE HAS A FORECAST HIGH OF 88 DEGREES AND
THEIR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MONDAY IS 87 DEGREES. VALENTINE
HAS A FORECAST HIGH OF 87 DEGREES AND THE RECORD HIGH FOR MONDAY IS
85 DEGREES.
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MONDAY FOR ALL OF THE FIRE WEATHER ZONES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FIRE WX ZONE 209. MIN RH WILL BE LOW, GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT, AND WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
POTENTIALLY UP TO 30 MPH OR GREATER. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING,
GENERALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION, WITH QPF VALUES GENERALLY AROUND TRACE
AMOUNTS, THUS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING AS LITTLE
TO NO QPF IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WILL BE THE SHARP TURN IN WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTH. BEHIND THE
FRONT WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 40 MPH. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MOSTLY
50S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHERN INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA, SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT SNOW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS UTAH AND ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EASTERN WYOMING, COLORADO
AND NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NEBRASKA AND MOST OF KANSAS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS (POTENTIALLY UP TO A FEW INCHES NORTH CENTRAL) TO
RESIDE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH THE LOWEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE NBM 48HR PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING
GREATER THAN 0.25" OF LIQUID IS ABOUT 85 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA, TO A 50 TO 60
PERCENT EASTERN PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS AN INCREASE IN
PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ENCOURAGING
THAT SOME MUCH NEEDED WETTING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH, AND NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER
FRIDAY, THEN EASTERN SD INTO MN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A
DRY SLOT COULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NE.
LIGHT WRAPAROUND RAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NE
ON SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
SO CONFIDENCE RESULTING PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE COOL IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
CENTRAL, TO UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY HIGHS FORECAST
TO CONTRAST FROM UPPER 30S FAR NORTHEAST TO LOW TO MID 60S FAR
SOUTHWEST. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MID 40S TO NEAR 60, THEN 60S BY
SUNDAY AS ZONAL FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY MONDAY MORNING AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS, THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 25KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS
LATE EVENING, WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 25KTS, INCLUDING
THE KVTN TERMINAL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 1 AM CDT
/MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ204-206-208-210.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
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