057
FXUS63 KLBF 122017
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
317 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE WITH A RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING SUNDAY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY.
- A PASSING DISTURBANCE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA INCLUDING A 20-30% FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.
- THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPEARS SET TO APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA RESIDES BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER-
LEVEL JET TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS
HAS LED TO A PART IN THE CLOUDS, LEAVING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURE READINGS AS OF 130PM CDT (1830Z) RANGED
FROM 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH GENERAL WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-
30 MPH. THE WARMTH, DRY DOWNSLOPING AIR, AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE
PROMOTED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS
REMAINING IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. DETAILS PERTAINING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE FOUND
BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES WITH LACK OF ANY LLJ AND RESULTANT STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL MOMENTUM CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT A COOLER NIGHT IN GENERAL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING FLOW. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORED UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR WHICH MAY HOLD CLOSER TO 50F. OVERALL BELIEVE THIS IS
REASONABLE WITH THE EXPECTED INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS HELPING
PREVENT A TRUE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECASTS
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE (< 25%) MENTION OF SHOWERS IN OUR FAR WEST.
OPTED TO REMOVE THIS MENTION AS HREF PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
MOISTURE WAS ESSENTIALLY NIL. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ANY SATURATED LAYER ABOVE 10KFT AGL WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR AVERAGING
~15-20% IN THE 0-3KM LAYER TO OVERCOME. WHILE SOME LAPSE RATES WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-LEVELS, THIS LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW IS
DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ANY MENTION OF DRY LIGHTNING.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF
NEBRASKA. HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY. GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STRONGER FLOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE LEE
TROUGHING AND CONTINUED WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW EARLY IN THE DAY.
EVENTUALLY, A SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND
TRACK TOWARDS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL DRAW A SUBTLE
DRYLINE FEATURE INTO THE SANDHILLS THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE MORNING, SHUNTING RICHER MOISTURE WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE RESULT WILL BE UPPER 70S
WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH. WIND PROFILES APPEAR SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN
SUNDAY, ADDING CONFIDENCE TO EXPECTED MAGNITUDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SANDHILLS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH OUT OF
SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE LATE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND FLIP TO
THE NORTH. FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK WITHIN A DRY PROFILE THUS NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO PRECLUDE GREATER WIND GUST
THREAT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MORE PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL SETTLE INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING
TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASING ASCENT WILL LEAD TO A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
FORM OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL DRAW THE LATE MONDAY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST, LEADING TO A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S NEAR THE PINE RIDGE TO LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TIGHTENING FRONTAL ZONE AND
INVOF OF THE EJECTING H5/H7 LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THIS WILL LARGELY FAVOR THE COOLER, MORE
STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THUS LIMITING THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE BUT
MODEST MUCAPE OF 250-750 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS AND WEAK
CONVECTION. STRONG LIFT, REASONABLE MOISTURE QUALITY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PWATS) NEARS 125% OF NORMAL, AND SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT
SHOULD LEAD TO REASONABLE QPF. NBM PROBABILITIES HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT
INCREASE, WITH 30-50% AND 20-30% POTENTIAL FOR EXCEEDING 0.10" AND
0.25" RESPECTIVELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EPS/GEFS
MEDIAN OUTPUTS STILL SHOW FAIRLY LARGE DISCREPANCIES BUT OVERALL
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING WITH THE EPS BEING
MORE BULLISH. LIKEWISE, SPECIFIC QPF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER FROM
THE EPS WHICH SUGGESTS EVEN 20-30% FOR EXCEEDING A HALF INCH. THIS
IS IN-LINE WITH NAM/ECMWF RAW OUTPUT SUGGESTING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FOLKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR MORE PRECISE
THINKING. INHERITED POPS LINGER FAIRLY LONG INTO WEDNESDAY AND
BELIEVE THESE WILL NEED TRIMMED UP WITH LATER FORECASTS AS ENSEMBLE
AND DETERMINISTIC SUPPORT FOR DAYTIME PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT SHOULD INCREASE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. CURRENTLY, AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S BUT THESE VALUES LIE ON THE LOWER END OF THE FORECAST
ENVELOPE SO INCREASES ARE PROBABLE IN THE COMING DAYS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA WEST TO
EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH HEIGHT RISES LIKELY HEADING INTO
THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL BOOST HIGHS CONSIDERABLY. VALUES WILL
RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE AREA BUT AGAIN,
THESE UNDERCUT THE NBM INNER-QUARTILE VALUES SO FURTHER INCREASES IN
THE COMING DAYS APPEAR POSSIBLE. ANY "HEAT WAVE" WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS THE NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE WEEK. TIMING
AND PLACEMENT FROM MID-RANGE MODELS IS GOOD, WITH THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS ARRIVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL RETURNS BEHIND A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY. AN INFLUX OF COOLER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW
IF NOT ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS LOW WITH NBM SUGGESTING ONLY 50-70% OF SEEING
> 0.1" IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. ANTECEDENT WARM TEMPERATURES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAMPER ANY
THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY IMPACTS. FOR NOW, WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LARGELY ON ELEVATED/GRASSY
SURFACES AND EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WARMUP APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN AND EXTENDED NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSISTENT CLIMB FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN 25-75TH MAX
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DIURNAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 10KFT AGL. PERSISTENT WESTERLY GUSTS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE, STRONGEST NORTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER
SYSTEM (OGA TO LBF LINE). WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS LIKELY
FOR BOTH TERMINALS. AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM IN, WESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD REDEVELOP WITH STRONG GUSTS FAVORING THE SANDHILLS
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONES
204, 206, 208, AND 209.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT NOON TO 10PM CDT MONDAY FOR ZONES 204,
206, AND 208.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD WANE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS UPPER-LEVEL
SPEED MAX DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND NEW LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO THE
WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FLIP TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY THE
SOUTHEAST FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THOUGH WIND SPEEDS MAY DECLINE FOR A
FEW HOURS, A MODEST INCREASE IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 MPH.
HUMIDITY RECOVERY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS SURFACE LOW DRAWS DRY
AIR OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS WILL BE CENTRAL AND EASTERLY NEBRASKA WHERE MORE MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS RICHER GULF AIR THAT MAY GRAZE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. EVEN AT IT'S MOST FAVORABLE OUTLOOK, ANY LOCATION THAT
EXCEEDS 70% MAX RELATIVE HUMIDITY TONIGHT (HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR AND
EAST) WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF IN NATURE, ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 HOURS,
WITH MORE PERSIST/GREATER RECOVERY VALUES EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
MONDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-90.
THIS WILL DRAG A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO
NEAR THE HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AGAIN BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS NEARING 30-35
MPH. WARMER TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE WITH STRONGER MIXING FROM
INVADING DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH SIMILARLY
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY READINGS. PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY BE CONFINED
MORE TO THE SANDHILLS THUS A SMALLER WATCH IS IN EFFECT COMPARED TO
THE WARNING FROM SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THE WIND POTENTIAL
CLOSELY IN LATER FORECASTS AS HUMIDITY WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE
LACKING. CLOUD COVER MAY BE OF GREATER IMPACT ON MONDAY BUT CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON LEAVING ANY IMPACTS TO BE FAIRLY
BRIEF AND EARLY IN THE DAY. AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS, A COOL FRONT WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH AND
ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO SEE AN APPRECIABLE JUMP BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THE LACK OF COLDER AIR AND THUS COLD AIR ADVECTION HINDERS WIND
POTENTIAL. WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN, HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE BEING WASHED
OUT AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING RAIN AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ARRIVES TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE QPF IS MEDIUM AT
BEST, BUT SIGNALS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SPOTTY WETTING RAINS. FAVORED AREAS WOULD BE THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE A NARROW STRIPE OF 0.25"+ APPEARS
POSSIBLE (20-30% NBM PROBABILITIES). ANY SHIFT IN THIS NARROW STRIPE
COULD LEAD TO FAIRLY LARGE VARIATIONS IN FORECAST RAINFALL SO FOLKS
ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR UP-TO-DATE THINKING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208-209.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...NMJ
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