178
FXUS63 KLBF 131714
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1214 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80 TODAY.
- A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGIONAL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A
VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDING
PROFILE DATA FROM O'NEILL AND BROKEN BOW INDICATE DEEP MIXING, AND
WHILE WINDS DON'T LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY, FREQUENT
WESTERLY GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE FROM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND 6 PM CDT OR SO. AFTER THE GRASS FIRES
YESTERDAY FUELS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL READY TO BURN. DECIDED WITH SUCH
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE (FWZ) 209) NEEDS TO BE
ADDED THE RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO THE EXPECTED/POTENTIAL WINDS. THE
STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF 209, MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. OTHERWISE, THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, AS WELL AS THE PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35
MPH AND POTENTIALLY IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE. ALL OF THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY (AS LOW AS 10% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS) AND 11-18% ELSEWHERE. DID NOT INCLUDE AREAS SOUTH OF I-80
IN TODAY'S WARNING. WINDS DO INCREASE AND COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS ACTUALLY
DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN HUMIDITY IS LOWEST, SO LEFT
THESE AREAS OUT. IF WINDS END UP STRONGER, THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THEY
MAY BE HAVE TO BE ADDED. WINDS QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING ALL
AREAS AND SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY BY LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE TRIMMED
AN HOUR OFF OF THE WARNING AND WILL HAVE IT EXPIRING AT 9 PM CDT DUE
TO THE RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS. OVERALL, HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS POOR
MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AROUND O'NEILL WHERE DECENT RECOVERY BETWEEN 75-80% IS
EXPECTED. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW TUESDAY, BUT WINDS LOOK LIGHTER
AND EAST TO NORTHEAST IN DIRECTION WITH THE AREA NORTH OF A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
AS THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A DECENT SHORTWAVE
WILL HELP TO INDUCE LARGE SCALE LIFT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH AN AREA OF
STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE LIFT INCREASES,
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. MUCAPE VALUES
ARE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SHEAR LOOKS STRONG AS WELL, AND COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED STRONGER STORM OR TWO THAT PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING 1/4" OR MORE OF RAINFALL ARE DECENT FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 INTO THE SANDHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA, NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST HAS POPS ON THE ORDER OF
30 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SEEMS TO AGREE WELL WITH
THE NBM ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF > 0.01" OF PRECIPITATION.
ATTM, THERE IS A DECENT THREAT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, WHEN QPF THRESHOLDS ARE INCREASED TO
0.10" PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDANCE FALL OFF CONSIDERABLY. SO WITH
THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM THE THREAT FOR A WETTING RAIN LOOKS MEAGER
AT BEST. AS FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY, READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RH OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOOKS LIKELY
THURSDAY. WITH A DECENT THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, NEAR-CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOKS PROBABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
OVER NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT, SPREADING EAST INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY, THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE MID LEVEL FORCING BEHIND THE
EXITING FRONT. THE GFS SOLN LIFTS A CLOSED H5 LOW ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THIS SCENARIO, THE MAIN AREA OF POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. THE EC
SOLN HAS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS NEBRASKA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE EC SOLN BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION. WHY IS THE MID LEVEL FORCING SO IMPORTANT HERE.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
APPEAR COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. IF THE EC VERIFIES, WE
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. IF THE GFS VERIFIES,
ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR WITH SEVERELY LIMIT QPF AND SNOW
POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT THE EC ENSEMBLES WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM,
LESS THAN HALF OF THE MEMBERS HAVE MEASURABLE PCPN FOR NORTH
PLATTE. THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE QPF FORECAST HAS ~50% CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. AGAIN WHEN THIS
THRESHOLD IS RAISED TO 0.1" PERCENTAGES DROP CONSIDERABLY.
CURRENT POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND THIS SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD PLACE TO START. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. WIDESPREAD SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
READINGS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
SOME STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS AND CEILINGS ABOVE 6000 FEET.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208-209.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...KULIK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page