935
FXUS63 KLBF 140813
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
313 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARM FRONT SHARPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
TODAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER WILL DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TO
PERHAPS NEAR- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR THEY WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY WITH NEAR
CRITICAL OR CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
A RATHER COMPLICATED SCENARIO TODAY INTO TONIGHT REGARDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA, A WARM
FRONT SHARPENS NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING AND
ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ALL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IT WILL NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO I-80, AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF POOLING MOISTURE IS NOTED JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.
SEVERAL OF THE CAMS FIRE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS
AREA AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AS
LARGE SCALE LARGE SCALE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS TO THE NORTH OF I-80 WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG MID-
LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MUCAPE/ELEVATED VALUES ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 300-600 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHEAR IS STRONG, AND COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO THAT PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER THOUGH THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY WITH THE
THREAT OVER BY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MIX EASTWARD WITH
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING RAPIDLY BY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
APPEAR THEY WILL BE ELEVATED TO PERHAPS NEAR-CRITICAL FOR AREAS WEST
OF HIGHWAY 83 AND ESPECIALLY HIGHWAY 61. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH, BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
FROM EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO THURSDAY. EAST OF
THIS TROUGH, A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF
THIS FEATURE, GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH PER THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EVEN HIGHER GUST
POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
KICKER HERE WILL BE WHERE THE CUTOFF IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN RESIDES. THE LATEST EC SOLN, LIFTS A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
MOISTURE TONGUE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC NAM12 SOLN
TONIGHT HAS THIS FEATURE AT 21Z THURSDAY ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY, NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
CUSTER, THEN SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY. WITH THIS LOCATION, MIN
RH MAY BE TOO HIGH FOR A RFW. WEST OF THIS LINE, THERE APPEARS
TO BE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RFW CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THE HWO. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN UTAH
THURSDAY NIGHT, FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST, TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST. FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THIS FORCING WILL SHIFT
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW WILL BECOME THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS NBM ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30% RANGE FOR
EXCEEDANCE OF 0.10". EVEN IF A TENTH OF AN INCH WERE ACHIEVED,
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE UNDER AN INCH AT BEST. UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND VERY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 50S THE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MINIMUM RH OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT MAY LEAD TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA, THE NBM INITIALIZED WITH SOME
ISOLATED POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING CLOSER, VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE, ELEVATED LI'S ARE PRESENT IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA (PER GFS SOLN). THAT BEING SAID, DECIDED
TO LEAVE POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY FORCING
WARMER AIR EAST ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REACH
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT POSSIBLE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY-APRIL 21, 22.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 20000 FT AGL TO
PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 10000 FT AGL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED AND WILL HANDLE MENTION WITH A PROB 30 GROUP THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS WITH THE SHOWERS SHOULD FALL OFF TO AROUND
5000 FT AGL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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