368
FXUS63 KLBF 142318
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
618 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS DRY, WARM, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
A LOW CONFIDENCE OF SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A COOLER START TO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
ROCKIES BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN LOW WILL
REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION, NOT TO MENTION SEVERE
POTENTIAL, TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW SOME
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FORCING
REMAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST, SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OR
SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVERALL, ANY PRECIPITATION WE
RECEIVE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE LIMITED QPF
AMOUNTS... GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER INCH (0.25 INCHES), WITH UP
TO A HALF INCH (0.50 INCHES) POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER, MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS. THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN
THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE. LINGERING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS AND
THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPERATURES, INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. DESPITE
THESE COOLER HIGHS, THEY WILL STILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ARRIVES ON THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 12 TO 16 C RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGHS TO
EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THESE HIGHS WILL BE
NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LATEST
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OVER 80 DEGREES
TO BE NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF US-83.
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY TO OVER 85 DEGREES, MUCH OF THAT SAME
AREA STILL HAS A NEARLY 70 TO 80 PERCENT OR HIGHER PROBABILITY. IN
ADDITION, LOOKING AT THE LATEST EFI/SOT GUIDANCE, THE EFI REMAIN
HIGH (0.7 TO 0.8), BUT SOT IS FAIRLY LOW. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT THERE MAY BE SOME VERY WARM, UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES,
BUT NOT NECESSARILY RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.
WOULD EVEN EXPECT THE GOING FORECASTED HIGHS TO RISE ANOTHER COUPLE
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS POTENTIALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT, PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
INTO THE PINE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TYPE AND WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW CUT OFF LINE WILL BE. FOR THE
MOST PART, AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL EXPECT
MOSTLY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE PINE RIDGE AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER
IN THIS REGION. STILL, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE LOW 40S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PINE RIDGE WHICH MAY
INHIBIT ANY SNOW OR AT LEAST MAKE ACCUMULATIONS MORE DIFFICULT.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS ALL
RAIN, BUT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND COLDER AIR BEHIND IT FILTERS
INTO THE REGION, A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. ONCE THE
SUN SETS IN THE EVENING AND TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. HOW
MUCH SNOW FALLS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PRECIPITATION TRACK
AND IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA BY THE TIME
TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. LOOKING AT THE
LATEST PROBABILITIES, THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL (OVER 50 PERCENT) TO SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE PINE RIDGE AND IN AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF A OGALLALA TO VALENTINE LINE WHICH SEEMS TO LINE
UP WELL WITH WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
WESTERN US WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR A DRY WEEKEND TO PREVAIL. THERE IS SOME LOW END
CHANCE POPS OF SOME LIGHT LINGERING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
AT THIS TIME AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SNOW IF
IT DOES DEVELOP. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE 0 TO -6 C RANGE INTO NEBRASKA KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ON
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN CHILLY INT HE LOW TO MID
20S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WOULD BE WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, WHERE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING TO NORTH TONIGHT AND THEN TO WEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
AT 5 TO 15KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...BROWN
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