658
FXUS63 KLBF 151114
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
614 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25-0.50" ARE LOCALLY POSSIBLE.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY, WITH A COMBINATION OF WARM,
DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE, AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT-MAINLY OVER
WESTERN AREAS.
- ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
CURRENTLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS WITHIN A ZONE OF
STRONG FGEN ALOFT, WITH A WEAK H85 LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
AS THIS LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING, SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO LOOKS TO PERSIST, AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST MEAGER INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES, THOUGH AS A WHOLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
TO 0.10-0.25" FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF HWY 2. WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, AS MUCH AS 0.25-0.50" WOULD BE POSSIBLE
LOCALLY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AS THE
MEAGER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OVERLAP WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON,
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL QUICKLY USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR, AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH REACHES TO NEAR THE HWY 83 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID-
AFTERNOON, AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW. THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME. STILL, HIGHS TODAY REACH INTO THE
LOWER 70S AGAIN, AND PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE TEENS FOR AREAS
WEST OF HWY 83 THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S,
AS THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME PERSISTS OVERNIGHT.
A MUCH MORE CONCERNING DAY IS THEN ON TAP FOR TOMORROW, AS
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN FURTHER INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES H85 TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMO, OR TO ~21-23C. UNFORTUNATELY,
THESE WARM HIGHS WILL COMBINE WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE,
AND PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS DEEP DIURNAL MIXING IS
ACHIEVED, SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED
AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM, VERY DRY, AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND SEE NO REASON TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FIRE WEATHER WATCH. BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA, AND SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH ITS PASSAGE.
STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO LEAD TO AMPLE MECHANICAL
MIXING, AND A PERIOD OF 40 TO 45 MILE PER HOUR NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID 50S IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE, HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES. FOR MOST OF THE DAY
FRIDAY, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOR LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST INCLUDING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
SANDHILLS, WEAK MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS. DURING
THE DAY, THERMAL PROFILES IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, WILL
SUPPORT SNOW, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GROUND TEMPS DO REMAIN WARM IN THESE AREAS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE 80+ DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED THURSDAY. WITH
THE WARM GROUND TEMPS, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONALLY, QPF'S WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NBM PRECIPITATION ENSEMBLES ONLY INDICATE
A 10 TO 20% CHANCE OF QPF EXCEEDING 0.10" FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
EVEN IF GROUND TEMPS WERE MUCH COLDER, SNOW ACCUMS WOULD
GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE INDICATED IN THE
LATEST GFS SOLN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADD IN SOME SURFACE HEATING, AND WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF WE SAW SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NBM INITIALIZED WITH SOME ISOLATED POPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL BE
RETAINED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW LOWS TO REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. AFTERNOON RH WILL REACH 10 TO 20
PERCENT ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S. ATTM THESE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE
AT THE 25TH%ILE OF THE NBM AND MAY END UP GOING EVEN HIGHER WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MIN RH OF 10 TO
20 PERCENT MONDAY AND 15 TO 25 PERCENT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL: THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS INVOF THE TERMINAL THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING. THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM 12Z TO 15Z AND WILL HANDLE THE
MENTION WITH A TEMPO GROUP. CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 6000 TO 9000 FT AGL. BY LATE MORNING, CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO
AROUND 20000 FT AGL BEFORE SCATTERING OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL: EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 20000 FT
AGL THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW
CLOUDS RANGING FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR
THIS EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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