413
FXUS63 KLBF 160509
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1209 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AS DRY, WARM, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FREEZE CONDITIONS.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION,
WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ARRIVES ON
THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 12 TO 16 C RANGE WILL
ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGHS TO EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THESE HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. LATEST PROBABILITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE OVER 85 DEGREES TO BE NEARLY 70 TO 80 PERCENT OR HIGHER
FOR AREAS EAST OF US-83. IN ADDITION, LOOKING AT THE LATEST EFI/SOT
GUIDANCE, THE EFI REMAIN HIGH (0.7 TO 0.8) WITH SOT ABOVE 0 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THERE MAY BE SOME VERY WARM, UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, BUT NOT
NECESSARILY RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. CURRENT
RECORDS SIT AT 89 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 91 AT BROKEN BOW, VALENTINE,
AND IMPERIAL. THE LATEST PROBABILITY SUGGESTS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
OVER 90 DEGREES TO BE HIGHEST (NEAR 45 PERCENT) ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THEREFORE, OUTSIDE OF THIS REGION (O'NEILL AREA),
NOT EXPECTING HIGHS TO RISE TO NEAR OR OVER 90... THEREFORE RECORDS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGHS OVER THE GOING FORECASTED HIGHS AS THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT, PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTO THE PINE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING
AND REMAIN COOLER IN THIS REGION. STILL, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 40S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PINE
RIDGE WHICH MAY INHIBIT ANY SNOW OR AT LEAST MAKE ACCUMULATIONS MORE
DIFFICULT DURING THE DAYTIME. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST,
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
PUSHES EAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL GENERALLY START OFF AS RAIN, BUT AS
THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH FILTERS INTO THE REGION, A GRADUAL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. ONCE THE SUN SETS IN THE EVENING
AND TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. AT THIS TIME, ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND OR UNDER A HALF INCH, MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END FRIDAY EVENING AND SKIES CLEARING OUT SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT CT.
THIS LEADS TO THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM. AS
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AND SKIES CLEAR AND COMBINE WITH COLD
AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION, SURFACE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
TO BELOW FREEZING. LOWS IN THE 20S WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH PORTIONS OF THE PINE RIDGE AND EASTERN PANHANDLE EVEN
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WHILE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 20S, A FREEZE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL ONLY ENCOMPASS AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 FRIDAY NIGHT
WHERE THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN SOME GROWING ALREADY STARTED AND MANY
PIVOTS AND SPRINKLERS HAVE BEEN TURNED ON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMALS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN, BUT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FREEZE HEADLINES, BUT THEY MAY BE NECESSARY AS OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL
DROP INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S BY TUESDAY WITH LOWS RETURNING INTO THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
EXPECT A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL GUST UP TO 30
KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEED
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 04Z FRIDAY FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL. THE
WIND SHIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE
KLBF TERMINAL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON THURSDAY AS
RH VALUES DROP AND WINDS INCREASE. HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DROPPING TO NEAR 10 PERCENT. SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE EVENING DUE TO THESE STRONG WINDS, LOWER RH VALUES, AND CURED
FUELS READY TO BURN. OVERNIGHT RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO OVER 70
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE REGION BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. QPF VALUES WILL REMAIN UNDER A TENTH INCH (0.10)
FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF US-83, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST.
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE ON FRIDAY, HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BACK TO 15
PERCENT OR LOWER ON SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK, THEREFORE
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH LOW RH INTO NEXT WEEK, CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CDT /11 PM MDT/ THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-
219.
FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...BUTTLER
FIRE WEATHER...KULIK
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