123
FXUS63 KLBF 161854
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
154 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS. AN ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW,
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH WEDNESDAY HAVING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS OF
1 PM, ALREADY OBSERVING CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES,
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. THESE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AROUND SUNSET, AS A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION DEVELOPS, EXPECTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LESS GUSTY WINDS,
BUT STILL EXPECT STEADY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER, THE CALM
IS SHORT LIVED, AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION, BRINGING AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTY WINDS LASTING
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT,
HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 80 PERCENT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVERNIGHT, DESPITE THE GUSTY WINDS, SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE RED FLAG EXPIRATION FOR MIDNIGHT CENTRAL.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT, IT WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA, IN THE PINE RIDGE VICINITY. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO START INITIALLY AS RAIN, WITH A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE
NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS,
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT, WITH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ONLY AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. AS FOR
SNOW AMOUNTS, GENERALLY EXPECTING THIS TO BE A DUSTING TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH, MOSTLY IN THE PINE RIDGE VICINITY. GIVEN THE GENERAL LACK
OF PRECIPITATION, NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION
EVENT, BUT SOMETHING TO BE COGNIZANT OF DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINING BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE, AND IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN GENERAL, EXPECTING HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. HOWEVER, WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION, EXPECTING THAT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A BITE,
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, THOUGH AGAIN, EXPECTING VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS, ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL, EXPECT A COLD, CLOUDY, AND DREARY DAY FOR
FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD. IN FACT, OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE COMPARED
TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA, BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
RECORD LOWS. EITHER WAY, THIS WILL BE A BIG SHOCK COMPARED TO HOW
WARM WE HAVE BEEN, ESPECIALLY TO PLANTS. FOR NOW, THESE FORECAST
LOWS ARE IN THE LOW 20S, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS. SEEING
AS WE HAVE HAD ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES RECENTLY AND ARE NOW
EXPECTING ANOMALOUSLY LOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, HAVE DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN THE INHERITED FREEZE WATCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST, AS
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
AGAIN, THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS TO PLANTS AND SPROUTING
VEGETATION, AS WELL AS TO SPRINKLER AND IRRIGATION SYSTEMS. WITH
THIS MAJOR SWING IN THE FORECAST, MAKE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR
THIS COLD BLAST.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S ARE EXPECTED. FOR REFERENCE, TYPICAL HIGHS
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND 61 TO 63 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OUTSIDE OF A LOW END CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
SHOWERS NEAR PINE RIDGE, NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW, AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. THIS MAY INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND, SO WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS, AND CONTINUED DRY SOILS, SEVERAL HOURS OF BELOW-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
20S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS, PUSHING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHTER, GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE, SO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
ANY INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OR GUSTS COULD LEAD TO GREATER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, SO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S BOTH DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY, WITH RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH, THOUGH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IF WINDS END UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE. ONCE AGAIN, WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, AND THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SHOWN BY BOTH THE
EPS AND GEFS IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM, BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN
TO THE AREA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THAT IT IS
STILL A WEEK OUT, BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS, ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS BRIEFLY DECREASING
THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING, A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE
REGION, BRINGING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION,
ALSO EXPECT INCREASING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA, THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH ONGOING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A BRIEF LULL IN GUSTS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING,
AS WELL AS BRING AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT, BUT EXPECTING VERY
LITTLE LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, GENERALLY REMAINING
AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL HELP
HUMIDITY RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 80 PERCENT OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE THE GUSTY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW ON FRIDAY, BUT QUICKLY RETURN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. BEYOND SATURDAY EXPECTING AT LEAST
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK, LARGELY DRIVEN
BY LOW HUMIDITY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND FORECASTS
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT /11 PM MDT/ TONIGHT FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...LABENZ
AVIATION...RICHIE
FIRE WEATHER...RICHIE
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