342
FXUS63 KLBF 171723
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WEST OF HWY 83 ON FRIDAY.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AT THIS TIME.
- COLD LOWS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- A COMBINATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SATURDAY.
- CRITICAL OR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD DEVELOP
BOTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL COMBINE
WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
CURRENTLY, A COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SANDHILLS, WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS AS STRONG AS 45 TO 55 MILES PER
HOUR WITH ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 40S IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE, WITH
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.
ADD THIS TO PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS, AND A MUCH COLDER DAY IS ON TAP
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN FACT, HIGHS TODAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO LEAVE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR ALL. BY THIS
AFTERNOON, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA, PROMOTING AS MUCH AS A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG
OF MUCAPE. AS THE H7 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AS MID-LEVEL FGEN
INCREASES. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY PRESENT, ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION RATES AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE A LITTLE TRICKIER GIVEN
MARGINAL THERMOS, BUT WOULD ANTICIPATED A MIXED P-TYPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE SOME COMBINATION OF GRAUPEL, SNOW, RAIN,
AND SLEET, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT LEAST MEAGER MUCAPE. WARM ANTECEDENT SOIL TEMPERATURES CASTS
SOME DOUBT ON HOW MUCH OF THIS WOULD CAUSE ISSUES ON AREA ROADWAYS,
THOUGH BRIEF, SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL REGARDLESS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
TODAY. ANY LIQUID AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER AT BEST FROM THIS PRECIP,
RESTRICTED TO LESS THAN 0.10" WEST OF HWY 83.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT, LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS. THIS WILL
PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MUCH
COLDER LOWS IN THE 20S EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE HIGH THEN BEGINS TO EXIT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH STRENGTHENING WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA THEN EXPECTED. THIS BRINGS A RETURN OF AT LEAST WEAK WARM
ADVECTION, BOOSTING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ALSO USHERS IN LOWER DEWPOINTS, AND HUMIDITY
LOOKS TO BOTTOM OUT AS LOW AS 12 TO 20 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINATION OF MILD, VERY DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS LOOKS TO
BRING A RETURN OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS, AND
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN AGAIN SPILLS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT, PROMOTING COLD LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY. ACROSS OUR AREA, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 60S
ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE, HIGHS REACHING THE MID 70S ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE. THE LACK OF WIND SUNDAY SHOULD LIMITED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DESPITE VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES.
MONDAY, A RIDGE BREAKDOWN OCCURS, A CLASSIC SET-UP FOR NEAR OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THIS INDEED APPEARS TO BE THE CASE,
AS GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY WELL BELOW
20% AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S.
TUESDAY, THE RIDGE ALOFT APPEARS IT WILL BUILD NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN,
WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AGAIN, IT WILL
BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY, BUT THE LACK OF MUCH OF A
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, AND
LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO/WYOMING. A VERY WARM DAY (HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S) ALONG
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST. APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GOOD SET-UP FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THE DIFFERENCE WEDNESDAY IS THAT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH DEW POINTS POSSIBLY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S BY AFTERNOON. THIS HIGHER
HUMIDITY COULD LIMIT A CRITICAL WEATHER THREAT.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ONLY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND POTENTIALLY CLOSE OFF ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED INCREASE
IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. AT THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT
IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL, BUT SOME LOWER CEILINGS DOWN TO 3000 FEET
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS IMPROVE AND WINDS
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IS ANTICIPATED BY
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
CDT /8 AM MDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...KULIK
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