819
FXUS63 KLBF 180555
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1255 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHICH
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FREEZE CONDITIONS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AS DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN.
- ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT HIGHER HUMIDITY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO SURFACE AND THE SNOW
THAT DOES ISN'T CAUSING TOO MANY IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT WILL BE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO THE FALLING SNOW.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT
APPROACHES THE US-83 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE, ANY ACCUMULATIONS OR
IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST/PINE RIDGE REGION.
AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES BY LATE AFTERNOON, CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT, BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE EVENING. THIS CLEARING
WILL HELP TO PROMOTE SOME ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, AT
LEAST ABNORMAL FROM WHAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING THE LAST FEW WEEKS. CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE REGION
WILL ALL COMBINE TO CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TEMPERATURES
TO DROP WELL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
TONIGHT. WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING HIGH IN THESE CHILLY TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE
WARNING. ALONG WITH THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND IN THE FREEZE
WARNING AREA WHICH COULD IMPACT EARLY SEASON CROP GROWTH/PLANTS,
DAMAGE TO OUTSIDE PLUMBING AND IRRIGATION, AND CREATE A DANGEROUS
ENVIRONMENT FOR LIVESTOCK. THOSE WITH ANY OF THE PREVIOUS CONCERNS
SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PIPES, OUTDOOR ANIMALS, AND
PLANTS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
NEBRASKA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMALS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO
THE 50S, MAYBE HITTING 60 DEGREES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN, BUT A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, NO FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT, BUT THEY MAY BE NECESSARY AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A WARMING TREND INTO SUNDAY, RETURNING
BACK ABOVE NORMAL (LOW 60S) FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 60S IN THE O'NEILL AREA UP TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGE BREAKDOWNS ACROSS THE AREA OFTEN
CORRELATE WITH INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE CASE MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO
20 C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING HIGHS INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, COMBINED
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE, WILL
PROMOTE ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES.
ON TUESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND AND SHIFT POLEWARD, WITH THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL AS LOW AS 10 TO 20 PERCENT, BUT
WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH, THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOWER COMPARED TO MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, ANY INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, WOULD LEAD TO GREATER FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
TROUGH WILL PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, LEADING TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S COULD HELP LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE REGION. WITH IMPROVING MOISTURE RETURN
AND GREATER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE TIMING, TRACK, AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING THE
POTENTIAL FOR BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING ABOUT A WEEK OUT, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS TIME, THE GEFS IS
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA, WHILE THE
EPS MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FARTHER EAST.
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS THIS WINTER INTO THIS SPRING, WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION OFTEN ENDING UP EAST OF THE AREA, CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION REMAINS LIMITED. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RESOLVE THE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BROKEN CEILINGS AT 7K FEET AGL WILL DEVELOP
WITH HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THEN DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT
20-30 KTS THEN DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SATURDAY AS
RH VALUES DROP AND WINDS INCREASE. HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DROPPING TO NEAR 12 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING DUE TO THESE STRONG WINDS, LOWER RH VALUES, AND CURED FUELS
READY TO BURN. OVERNIGHT RH VALUES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO 45 TO 55
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-80 AND ONLY INTO THE 55 TO 65 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. DESPITE WINDS BEING
LIGHTER ON SUNDAY, SOME NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
ARE STILL EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES START TO WARM AND AFTERNOON RH
DROPS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS AND PRECIPITATION REMAINS MINIMAL.
EXPECT CONTINUED NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...LABENZ
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...KULIK
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