571
FXUS63 KLBF 180932
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
432 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COMBINATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES, VERY DRY CONDITIONS, AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
- NEAR CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR THEY
WILL DEVELOP MONDAY. POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
- AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR PERHAPS SEVERE STORM
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
CURRENTLY, CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS IS ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
EARLY THIS MORNING.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST,
NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE. FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS SOMEWHAT STRONG (H7-H85 WINDS ~35-40KTS), AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS DOWNSLOPING WIND WILL
PROMOTE STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION, ALONG WITH AMPLE DIURNAL
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS DEEPER MIXING IS ACHIEVED, THE HIGHER
MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PROMOTED DOWNWARDS AND LEAD TO GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MILES PER HOUR THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING AS LOW AS 12 TO 20
PERCENT DESPITE TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
THIS COMBINATION OF MILD, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. OPTED TO
EXPAND THE INHERITED RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA (ADDED FIRE WEATHER ZONE 208 IN NORTH CENTRAL NE), AS THE
STRONG WINDS LOOK MORE THAN ADEQUATE DESPITE MARGINAL (~18-22%)
EXPECTED MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT, AGAIN
LEADING TO WEAKENING WINDS AND EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP, WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN,
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE TO PROTECT ANY SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
VEGETATION.
TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER ON SUNDAY, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MEAGER WARM ADVECTION
WILL BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S, WITH THE WARMEST
HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS WITH THIS AFTERNOON, THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THAT
SAID, WINDS LOOK TO BE MUCH WEAKER, AND THIS PRECLUDES ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR NOW. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED,
THOUGH AT LEAST ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CAN
BE EXPECTED YET AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A RIDGE BREAKDOWN OCCURS MONDAY, A CLASSIC SET-UP FOR NEAR OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE, AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY WELL BELOW 20% AND HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80 WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST.
THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY, WITH THE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AGAIN, IT WILL BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY, BUT WITH THE THE LACK OF MUCH OF A SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE,
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO/WYOMING. A VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST TIGHTENS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL SET-UP FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ONE DIFFERENCE WEDNESDAY IS THAT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH DEW POINTS
POSSIBLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S BY AFTERNOON.
THIS HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD LIMIT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS APPEAR TO BE
MAXIMIZED. A RATHER NARROW CORRIDOR OF BETTER MOISTURE THOUGH, WITH
THE DRY LINE AND LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE WEST, AND TO THE EAST,
THE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY APPEAR TO BE MORE SHALLOW. BOTH
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 18/00Z GFS AND ECMWF INITIATE CONVECTION
AROUND HIGHWAY 61 ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA NEAR THE DRY
LINE. THIS ACTIVITY THEN TRACKS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST WITH THE SHALLOWER MOISTURE.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FOR A POTENTIAL
SUPERCELL OR TWO INITIATING OFF THE DRYLINE. SOUNDING PROFILES
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A DEVELOPING TORNADO
THREAT DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET INCREASES. THIS
WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AXIS,
AND IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/HUMIDITY CAN RETURN NORTHWARD,
WHICH HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE FOR OUR AREA SO FAR THIS YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BROKEN CEILINGS AT 7K FEET AGL WILL DEVELOP
WITH HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THEN DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT
20-30 KTS THEN DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
TODAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO CRITICAL FOR CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE 50S WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VERY LOW, RANGING
FROM AROUND 13-16% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, WITH 19-22% ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS DEEP MIXING QUICKLY DEVELOPS BY MID-MORNING.
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE QUICKLY AND BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT WITH OVERALL POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...BROWN/TAYLOR
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