206
FXUS63 KLBF 181856
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
156 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, WITH SUBFREEZING LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN ON
MONDAY, WITH CLIMBING TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
GUSTY WINDS.
- WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN STORM COVERAGE AND EVOLUTION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR, AIDING IN RADIATIONAL COOLING, A SLIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THIS SLIGHT
WIND SHOULD LIMIT OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF COMPLETELY,
KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FOR NOW,
EXPECTING THAT TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR A FEW
HOURS RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. GIVEN THE MARGINAL SET UP TONIGHT FOR
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES, AND THE RELATIVELY SHORTER DURATION, HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE ADDITIONAL FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, EVEN WITHOUT A FREEZE PRODUCT IN PLACE, CAUTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH SENSITIVE PLANTS AND VEGETATION, AS WELL AS
WITH OUTDOOR PLUMBING FEATURES, SUCH AS SPRINKLER AND IRRIGATION
SYSTEMS. AS FOR FROST POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT, HUMIDITY RECOVERY REMAINS
POOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY FOR
FROST DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, FURTHER NORTH, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NIOBRARA RIVER, HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SPEAKING OF POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY, WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TOMORROW. ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA,
HUMIDITY VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON DROP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT, WITH
VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT.
HOWEVER, WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH PEAK GUSTS REMAINING UNDER 20 MPH. THESE LIGHTER WINDS
SHOULD HELP LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, DESPITE
THE LOW HUMIDITY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
BY MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION, SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. A PUSH OF VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION,
DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES UNDER 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MORE CONCERNING, IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP BELOW 10
PERCENT IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY EVENING, ARE
EXPECTED, WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. WITH THIS SET UP,
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE WIND FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES TO DETERMINE WHETHER
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHICH IS 10
TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE, BUT WITH WINDS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES, LEADING TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENS TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS
WELL, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD HELP LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, INCREASING
MOISTURE, LIFT, AND AN EASTWARD-MOVING DRYLINE COULD PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STORM
COVERAGE APPEARS ISOLATED AT BEST, AND THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM.
THURSDAY, THE MAIN SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTH OF THE REGION,
WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TO THE UPPER 70S FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. THE AREA COULD POTENTIALLY END UP WITHIN THE DRY SLOT OF
THIS SYSTEM, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CANADA LIKELY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY,
NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION, WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS. BY THE EVENING, AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS, EXPECTING WINDS
TO QUICKLY DECREASE, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECTING FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, WITH NO IMPACTS TO CEILINGS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE, BUT EXPECTING
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO VISIBILITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, LEADING TO POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, MORE EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES MAY
KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, BEING SO CLOSE TO CRITERIA, WILL MAINTAIN THE
RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM TOMORROW AFTERNOON, PUSHING TO SEASONAL TO ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE REGION, HOWEVER, LIGHTER WINDS TOMORROW SHOULD LIMIT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. BY MONDAY, NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAINING THROUGH MID WEEK.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...LABENZ
AVIATION...RICHIE
FIRE WEATHER...RICHIE
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