662
FXUS63 KLBF 191159
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
DUE TO WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
- WARM, VERY DRY, AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TOMORROW MAY LEAD TO NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- NEAR CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/HUMIDITY RETURNS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AHEAD
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
- AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR PERHAPS SEVERE STORM
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AS
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NEAR THE PINE RIDGE
TO THE LOWER 40S IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNRISE.
BY LATE THIS MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THEN PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BISECT THE AREA
TODAY, LEADING TO A RANGE IN EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST
HIGHS WILL RESIDE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHERE HIGHS REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT. FOR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S
TODAY. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL
PROMOTE VERY LOW HUMIDITY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. LUCKILY, A REPRIEVE FROM THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY. THIS WILL KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LESSER, THOUGH
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH EXITS OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS
FURTHER REINFORCED BY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE BOOST IN WARM ADVECTION
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD IN THE 30S, AND WILL LEAD TO MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR ALL MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT, HIGHS LOOK TO
RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AS DEEP DIURNAL MIXING
IS ACHIEVED MONDAY AFTERNOON, HUMIDITY BOTTOMS OUT AS LOW AS THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS, MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80. THIS COMBINATION OF WARM, VERY
DRY, AND GUSTY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE CONCERNS, AND FIRE
HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY, WITH THE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM
DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY. THERE ISN'T MUCH OF A SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, AND WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY,
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/WYOMING. IN FACT, MOST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT A DEEP LOW CENTER DOWN TO AROUND 990MB.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF WHICH HAS A 989MB CENTER
AND THE GFS 985MB. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM EAST TO WEST AND BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
THE AREA. A VERY WARM DAY ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL SET-UP FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE GULF, WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S BY AFTERNOON. THIS HIGHER HUMIDITY COULD LIMIT THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND JUST TO THE EAST WHERE HIGHER
SURFACE DEW POINTS APPEAR TO BE MAXIMIZED. A RATHER NARROW CORRIDOR,
WITH THE DRY LINE AND LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE WEST, AND TO THE EAST,
THE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY APPEARS MORE SHALLOW WITH DEW POINTS MIXING
INTO THE UPPER 40S. BOTH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 19/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF INITIATE CONVECTION NEAR HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKEST. THIS ACTIVITY
THEN TRACKS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR
EAST, AS THE CAPPING INVERSION QUICKLY STRENGTHENS DURING THE
EVENING. NEVERTHELESS, HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR A POTENTIAL
SUPERCELL OR TWO INITIATING OFF THE DRYLINE. SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT
DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. THIS WILL HIGHLY
DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AXIS AND THE CAPPING
INVERSION.
THE DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY,
WITH A RETURN TO STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
APPEARS THURSDAY WILL LIKELY SEE NEAR IF NOT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. FRIDAY WILL SEE A COOL DOWN, BUT
STILL APPEARS IT WILL BE DRY (LOW HUMIDITY) AND BREEZY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH TODAY. SKIES SHOULD MAINLY BE CLEAR,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR
LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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