802
FXUS63 KLBF 011750
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND. AS WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN,
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THEN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS LEAVES WESTERN NEBRASKA
UNDER NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH A RIDGE TO THE
WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE IS OBSERVED IN THE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS CURRENT SET UP, EXPECTING NEAR SEASONAL TO
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. FOR REFERENCE, HIGHS IN EARLY MAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA ARE TYPICALLY AROUND 66 TO 67 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME,
EXPECTING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA, WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON, WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY ACROSS THE REGION, BUT MAY SEE
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL GENERALLY OVERLAP WITH
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES,
AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS, EXPECTING A FEW
HOURS OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL SET UP, WILL FOREGO ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES, BUT
CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY FLAME SOURCES ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON, AS CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH AND
SPREAD. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH RELATIVELY MEAGER MOISTURE
AVAILABLE, EXPECTING VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
SURFACE.
ATTENTION TURNS TO FRIDAY NIGHT, AS CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CURRENTLY, FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, BUT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. IN FACT,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NARROW SPREAD OF OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE REGION, RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE
AND THE UPPER 20S IN NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE. WITH THIS IN MIND,
BLENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE 50TH PERCENTILE, BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO LOWER, SHOULD CONFIDENCE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. WILL AGAIN HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE HEADLINE AT
THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR. REGARDLESS OF
HEADLINES, THOSE WITH COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND VEGETATION MAY WANT
TO TAKE PRECAUTION TO PROTECT PLANTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST, WHICH BRINGS
WESTERN NEBRASKA SLIGHTLY MORE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
REGION ALSO SEES AN INFLUX OF WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT,
SPECIFICALLY AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THIS WILL FAVOR WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83,
MAY SEEM HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE,
BRINGING LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME, EXPECTING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
RANGE, WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH, AND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT, NOT EXPECTING AS STRONG OF A COOL OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A QUIET AND DRY END TO THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE MOST PART WITH MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS STORMS DEVELOP OFF THE BLACK HILLS AND
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS VERY LOW IN
SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE BORDER, BUT WILL MAINTAIN A BRIEF
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY IS ON THE WEAKER
SIDE AND THEREFORE, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE STORMS, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. RAIN SHOWERS COMBINED WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE. NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE LOW 60S FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL NOT
ONLY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS, BUT ALSO A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RETURN INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID-WEEK, THE CONTINUED DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WILL KEEP SOME FIRE CONCERNS AROUND FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. WHILE SOME AREAS ARE STARTING TO GREEN-UP, MUCH OF THE FUEL
REMAINS DRY AND READY TO BURN. AS SUCH, THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN
HEADING INTO TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL, ALBEIT LOW POTENTIAL,
OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. WITH QPF REMAINING FAIRLY LIMITED,
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS WITH ANY OF
THESE STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL
BE SOME MID-LEVEL TO HIGH SCATTERED TO BKN CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT, LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WESTERLY AROUND
5 KTS SATURDAY MORNING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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