252
FXUS63 KLBF 012048
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO 70S
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY,
THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE STATE. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
HOWEVER VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WHIT THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. DECIDED TO GO
WITH A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, AS TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING IN THE FROM AROUND 25 TO 30 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH A FEW
OF THE LATEST MODELS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER, STILL
DECIDED TO TREND WITH THE COOLER MODELS, THE 50TH AND 25TH
PERCENTILE. LIGHT WINDS AND ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS EVENING, THUS EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEEING WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OFF TO THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK WAA WITH 850MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM 16 TO 18 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE LOW 70S ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY
A VERY SUBTLE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS
COOLING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...INTO THE UPPER 60S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS WHERE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
MONDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARM TREND FROM THE WEEKEND, AIDED BY A
RIDGE BREAKDOWN TO PUSH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S (5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW 80S IN FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HUMIDITY DROPPING TO AS LOW
AS 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS GUSTY NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SANDHILLS.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ALLOWING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
ON THE WEAKER SIDE. IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, LREF HAS
30 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF > 0.10" ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WHILE NBM IS A LITTLE BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT.
REGARDLESS, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH
HIGHS BARELY CRESTING ABOVE 60 (ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH, STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF A
SIMILAR TUNE OF FIRE CONCERNS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BRING
CONTINUED WARM, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. CONTINUED
MONITORING WILL BE MAINTAINED TO REFINE THE FORECAST BUT
VIGILANCE MUST REMAIN AS FUELS REMAIN DRY AND READY TO BURN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL
BE SOME MID-LEVEL TO HIGH SCATTERED TO BKN CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT, LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WESTERLY AROUND
5 KTS SATURDAY MORNING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 8 AM CDT /7 AM
MDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ006>010-022-025>029-035>038-056>059-
069>071.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...GOMEZ/MRS
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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