639
FXUS63 KLBF 020821
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS. ELEVATED CONCERNS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY, THOUGH WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK AND
THEN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY, BRINGING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY THIS MORNING, WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IS EXPECTED, WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 15 TO 18 DEGC RANGE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. AS
WARMER, DRIER AIR TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINATION OF WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CREATE
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS, WHERE RECENT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER, NEAR
SEASONAL HIGHS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH THESE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, EXPECT
THAT MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 20 TO 30
PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LIGHTER NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 MPH,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A FEW
HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, HOWEVER THE LIGHTER WINDS MAY LIMIT
A GREATER CONCERN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
MUCH OF MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE AND
THEREFORE, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50MPH AND HAIL UP NICKEL SIZED
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER
SIDE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THESE
COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL EVEN ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF US-83. THE PINE RIDGE REGION
COULD EVEN SEE A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW, HOWEVER, ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS, BUT ALSO A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RETURN INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S
BY FRIDAY.
DESPITE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID-WEEK, THE CONTINUED DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WILL KEEP SOME CONTINUED FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE SOME AREAS ARE STARTING TO
GREEN-UP, MUCH OF THE FUEL REMAINS DRY AND READY TO BURN. WITH
MINIMAL QPF (0.1 OR LESS) EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM, THERE MAY BE SOME DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL ON MONDAY AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS THE
EVENT UNFOLDS, ADDITIONAL QPF (UP TO A FEW TENTHS) MAY HELP TO
RELIEVE THE DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AND LIMIT FIRE CONCERNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
WINDS REMAIN NEAR OR UNDER 10 KNOTS BUT WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ006>010-022-025>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
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