426
FXUS63 KLBF 022331
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT REMAINS LOW.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THERE WILL BE A WEAK "COLD" FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH OUT
OF SD TONIGHT INTO THE SANDHILLS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. DECIDED TO KEEP SOME LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, A
FEW CAMS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, THUS COULD NOT ULTIMATELY DISMISS AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST. KEPT POPS UNDER 30 PERCENT DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AS FOR MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE RIDGE BREAKDOWN AND COULD SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR COME ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS WELL. MIN RH WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY AFTERNOON, WITH A SHARP NORTH TURN WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DID TREND WIND SPEEDS UP SLIGHTLY BY BLENDING WITH THE
90TH PERCENTILE AS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME, THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW END CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT
TO NORTH PLATTE TO OSHKOSH AND SOUTHWARD. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON, THUS THE ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITIAL FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL, THIS WILL GENERALLY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE
LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, SO EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, DO NOT EXPECT DRY LIGHTNING TO BE AN
ISSUE, AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A "WETTING" RAIN WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, QPF VALUES OF A COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF AN
INCH TO A TENTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS WHERE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER IN THE NW SANDHILLS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
TUESDAY, A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE, ALONG WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, WITH
THE 50TH PERCENTILE RANGING FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES AND THE
75TH PERCENTILE UP TO 0.30 INCHES. PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING
0.10 INCHES RANGE FROM 50 TO 80 PERCENT, HIGHEST ACROSS THE
WEST. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO MID 50S EAST.
WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL EJECT EAST OF THE REGION, LEADING TO
INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW, AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE STRONGEST FORCING. THE GEFS FAVORS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS
KANSAS, RESULTING IN LIGHTER PRECIPITATION LOCALLY, WHILE THE EPS
SUGGESTS A STRONGER AND MORE WESTWARD NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT,
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. AT
THIS TIME, THE GEFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BE NEAR FREEZING, LEADING TO A CHANCE OF A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 50S DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION, BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING, WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND WINDS INCREASE. WHILE RECENT RAINFALL
MAY LIMIT THIS THREAT, DRYING FUELS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRAKA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS
THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOSTLY NORTHERLY WINDS BY THE
MORNING. PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANIES THE
FRONT, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY AT THIS
TIME.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...LABENZ
AVIATION...RICHIE
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