366
FXUS63 KLBF 041144
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
644 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING,
WITH CHANCES OF RAIN REMAINING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
A COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WHICH WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT,
HIGHS REACH INTO THE 60S, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH, IT BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BY THE EVENING HOURS.
PRIOR TO THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THERE MAY BE A
FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. LOWEST HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WITH MINIMUM
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. ACROSS THE SANDHILLS, HUMIDITY
REMAINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER, IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. WHILE
CRITICAL HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND ISOLATED
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE, THE GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS WHERE RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LOWER. HOWEVER, BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DWINDLE, AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE FRONT TRACKS SOUTH, A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, INCREASING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO SLOW THE FRONT, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE, ESPECIALLY AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD BRING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, POSSIBLY UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, MORE WIDESPREAD AND LONGER LASTING RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION, EXPECTING A MUCH
MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION,
ESPECIALLY AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.
BY TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS, HELPING DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING
CONTINUING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. ON AND OFF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE THE REGION. AS TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT INTO THE 30S ACROSS
THE REGION, MAY BEGIN TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WARMER SOIL
TEMPERATURES AND RECENT RAINFALL MAY HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS,
BUT STILL, ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN A
DUSTING AND FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
ANY SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE BACK ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT LINGERING
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS.
RAIN SHOWERS COMBINED WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. THESE CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE AT THIS TIME, AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THEY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US WILL KEEP SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS RIGHT NOW, BUT COULD SEE A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ON THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ALLOWING FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERE RISK IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
RETURNING INTO THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY IN
THE 40S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE LATE MORNING AT KVTN AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT KLBF AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
NORTHEAST GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, HOWEVER, CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FEET UNTIL THE EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE EVENING RESULTING IN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS DROPPING AS LOW AS 5000 FEET. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KLBF, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
COME TO AN END BY EARLY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
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